Cam Newton, CAR vs TB (FD – $8,600, DK – $6,600)
The top play here is obvious and covered in chalk: Cam Newton at home vs the Bucs secondary that has allowed the most Passing TD to opposing QBs in 2018. In addition, the Bucs have switched back to Ryan FitzMagic under center, which should keep them in contention and has propelled the over/under up to 55, the 2nd highest on the main slate. Newton has scored over 24 FP in three straight contests, two against top ten secondaries. He costs less than Mahomes on both sites, and has the same monstrous ceiling in this match-up.
Russell Wilson, SEA vs LAC (FD – $7,700, DK – $5,900)
If you are looking for some variance from the pack, and to save some dough, Wilson has a very enticing match-up against the Bolts this week. The Chargers might not look like a secondary to exploit at first glance, but that is solely due to their recent opponents. In five of their first seven contests they faced BUF, SF, OAK, CLE, and TEN. If you wanted to inflate your team passing defense stats, that’s the path right there. In the other two games, Patrick Mahomes threw 4 TD and Jared Goff hung 354 yards on them. They have also given up the third most 20+ Yard receptions this season, which means Tyler Lockett and maybe even Doug Baldwin finally should be getting behind the safeties often. If you watched the Seahawks in Week 8, you saw Wilson tossing dimes down the field against the Lions secondary. The volume isn’t there still, but in what should be a shootout with Philip Rivers – Pete Carroll is going to have to rely on Wilsons arm like the good ol’ times when he was a top 3 fantasy QB.
Kareem Hunt, KC @ CLE (FD – $8,500, DK – $7,700)
I am expecting things to be pretty out of hand in this game by the second half. There is a reason the Browns allow 138.9 Rushing Yards per Game and the most Rushing TD in the league. With that being said, Hunt should see plenty of volume this week, and he will feast. He is already up to 10 TD on the season, just 1 shy of his 2017 total. He should tie and pass that number against CLE.
Isaiah Crowell, NYJ @ MIA (FD – $5,700, DK – $4,200)
I hate relying on Crowell for anything as much as you, especially with money on the line. But give me the ball against this Dolphins defense and I’m going to return value at this price. The Phins are allowed 143.1 Rushing Yards per game in 2018. They let Lamar Miller run for 133 and a score last week. LAMAR MILLER. Kerryon Johnson ran for 158 the week before that. A LIONS RUNNING BACK. I know Crowell shat the bed in Week 2 against this team, but that was back when Sam Darnold had a plethora of healthy WR to throw to, even Bilal Powell. He threw 41 passes for 334 yards. He hasn’t sniffed that since. If the Jets want to win this Divisional match-up, they are going to have to run Crowell into the ground. Here’s to hoping Todd Bowles recognizes that.
Cooper Kupp, LAR @ NO (FD – $6,800, DK – $6,000)
I’m not paying up for a WR this week, and Kupp is going to be my anchor of value studs. Coming off his knee injury, his price is as low as it will be for the rest of the year. The Saints have been lit up through the air this season, giving up 300 yards per game, a 15:3 TD:INT ratio, and a 70.1 Cmp%. Adam Thielen enjoyed success from the slot last week, and Kupp will have a big welcome back party against PJ Williams. Goff gets his go-to WR back, and Kupp looks to continue his 15.2 FP/G season.
D.J. Moore, CAR vs TB (FD – $5,300, DK – $4,300)
You like stacking your QB with his weapons? Well, it doesn’t get much better than finding one for this cheap. Torrey Smith has already been ruled out for Week 9, and Moore is coming off a 5 Rec, 90 Yds performance against the toughest defense in football. We already discussed the Bucs woes in defending the pass. This is an easy choice.
Honorable Mentions: Kenny Golladay & Marvin Jones Jr, DET @ MIN
David Njoku, CLE vs KC (FD – $5,200, DK – $4,600)
Fool me once, shame on you. Njoku ain’t fooling anyone this week though. There is no way a new head coach and OC walk into their new office and think, “Let’s avoid Njoku again this week, that seemed to work out well last time.” The Chiefs have allowed the 3rd most FP to opposing TEs this week, and expecting to be playing from behind early – Mayfield is going to target Njoku heavily to keep the chains moving. Before the dud in Week 8, Njoku had 4 consecutive games with 50+ yards, and TDs in two straight.
Greg Olsen, CAR vs TB (FD – $6,200, DK – $4,700)
I’m not going to pay an extra thousand to play Olsen on FanDuel, but being only 100 bucks more than Njoku on DraftKings makes it an easy call to stack along with D.J. Moore. Olsen has scored in consecutive weeks, and facing the 2nd most generous defense to the TE position.
Chicago Bears @ BUF (FD – $5,400, DK – $4,100)
Nathan Peterman. That is all.