A week removed from a pair of last-place teams facing off on Monday night (San Francisco 49ers and New York Giants), two first-place teams will be in the national spotlight this week. And who says that good things don’t come for those who wait?
What a dandy we have between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams. The game was scheduled to be played in Mexico City, but due to poor field conditions at the Estadio Azteca stadium, the NFL decided to move the game to Los Angles, which was probably a smart move with numerous starters from both units threatening to sit out if the game wasn’t relocated.
The change of venue adds an intriguing twist to the proceedings. The Rams stayed in Colorado Springs until Saturday, practicing in the Rocky Mountain altitude to get acclimated for Monday’s Mexico showdown. And while that turned out to be all for naught, it doesn’t hurt Los Angeles that they adapted to a more difficult environment and now get to settle in at home. For the Chiefs, it is a slightly different situation. In a sense, they got the runaround treatment and never were able to get settled entirely. Their schedule turned into limbo with their travel plans thrown upside down.
Kansas City Chiefs (+3) versus the Los Angeles Rams (-3) O/U 63.0
A few unusual things have taken place with the betting line since the game was moved to Los Angeles. The line jumped from the Rams -2.5 on a neutral field to -3.5 at home and has since been bet down to -3. It’s a very tiny movement when you consider that it now becomes an actual home game for Los Angeles, but there isn’t some vast home-field advantage at the Coliseum. The total, on the other hand, has practically stayed put. There have been some minor deviations and movements but nothing outlandish in the reposting of it.
So where does the value now lie from a betting perspective? For starters, any “math guy” is going to tell you that under 63 is the play tonight. It is the highest over/under in history, and the number has gotten juiced up even further than it should have been because of the liability that a Monday night game presents to the casinos. I am moderately worried that both of these teams won’t be able to defend each other and will probably be avoiding any action on that front, that is unless I can get an under 14 in the first quarter potentially.
While the offenses are expected to light up the scoreboard tonight, I think the game could turn into a battle of attrition between the ground games. It seems likely to me, at least early on, that both units will have your classic boxing “feel out process.” Neither team will want to be torn to shreds early, and that would allow a slower start than most are anticipating, which in turn presents us an almost PG rated viewing of “Gurley Gone Wild,” featuring a slippery Kareemy Hunt. It may sound a little dirty on the surface, but I think the potential emphasizing of the run games could turn the matchup into a clock-eating first quarter.
The game offers a high amount of variation that will probably have one or two stops potentially shift the dynamics. A defense being able to hold the other team’s offense to three points instead of seven will loom large so I wouldn’t go breaking the bank on any wager that you make. The casinos will need the Rams and under in a big way tonight with almost 71 percent of spread bets coming in on Kansas City and 73 percent of moneyline wagers. At this point, I am just playing the waiting game on taking the Rams. I’d imagine that some sharp action will eventually come in and take Los Angeles, but until that happens, I will play the long game and see how low this number will drop before I place my wager.
I had a solid 3-2 day yesterday on my bets for about 0.52 units of profit and will be risking a unit of action on tonight’s game to decide the week. In general, I like keeping my bets at 1 unit, 1.25 units, 1.50 units and 1.75 units for my max play. To make it simple to understand, what that essentially means is that as a $100 bettor, I am risking $100 for my one-star type plays, $125 on my two-star picks and so on and so forth up to what a max selection would be of $175. The last thing you want to be doing is egregiously overweighting bets by three or four times the amount from one contest to the next. It is an easy concept to figure out where your units would sit if you just multiply your standard bet by the unit amount you want to use. Good luck on any action you place on Monday’s potential Super Bowl showdown, and I will see you back for my bet of the week for Week 12 of the NFL season