What’s up guys? We’re bringing you a special Thanksgiving Day edition of our DFS picks, because here at The Combine we’re all about helping you ignore your families on national holidays! Jokes aside, the NFL Thanksgiving slate has become extremely popular with DFS fans and we want to help you get a (turkey) leg up on the competition this year. See what I did there? Let’s get to the picks…
Mitchell Trubisky, Chi @ Det (FD-$7,900 & DK-$5,900)
Man, I’m slowly but surely becoming a Mitch Trubisky truther. The guy obviously has tons of physical talent and new Bears head coach Matt Nagy appears to be the perfect play caller to utilize Trubisky’s skill set. The second-year QB’s improved play this season is very similar to the type of jump that Jared Goff made when Sean McVay replaced Jeff Fisher. While there are similarities to Goff, Trubisky has yet to find that level of consistency.
Obviously, we are on a short slate with just three games to choose from. Trubisky’s lack of consistency brings a scary-low floor into play, but he does possess tournament-winning upside. He has cleared 30 DraftKings points an impressive four times this season, including a 39 point outing against this Lions defense just two weeks ago. It’s tough scrolling past the likes of Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, but Trubisky has a ceiling that rivals either of those QBs and should have much lower ownership. On this type of slate, we’re trying to catch lightning in a bottle and while the Chicago signal caller is volatile, he has slate-breaking potential.
Alvin Kamara, Atl @ NO (FD-$8,900 & DK-$8,300)
As mentioned above, we have to be willing to embrace volatility on this type of slate, but I’m penciling Alvin Kamara into every single one of my lineups on Turkey Day. I’ve targeted RBs against this Atlanta defense throughout the season with tremendous success and don’t plan on getting fancy here.
This is the perfect storm of matchup and talent. The Falcons struggle to stop exactly what Kamara does so well. The Atlanta defense is 31st in yards allowed per carry and has allowed the most receptions to RBs in the league. We all know how explosive Kamara is with the ball in his hands and he appears to only be limited by Sean Payton’s instinct to preserve him for the playoffs. He excels at catching passes out of the backfield and will present matchup nightmares for this Falcons defense that has been absolutely destroyed by opposing RBs. There are definitely some spots that we will want to gamble on this slate, but this isn’t one of them.
Bruce Ellington, Chi @ Det (FD-$5,000 & DK-$3,200)
Remember about five seconds ago when I said that we will want to gamble on this slate? Well…I’ve got a longshot for you at the WR spot. We are obviously on a short week, so we will need to keep a close eye on injury news, but if Marvin Jones Jr remains out for the Detroit Lions (it appears that he will be out again) then Bruce Ellington becomes a very legit value option.
Ellington is a veteran that was signed by the Lions just a couple of weeks ago. Despite being new to the team, Ellington received a massive NINE targets in his Week 11 Detroit debut vs Carolina. With injuries to both Marvin Jones Jr and TE Michael Roberts, as well as Golden Tate’s departure to Philly, the Lions are starved for depth in the receiving corps. The Bears aren’t a dream matchup, but Ellington makes tons of sense as a very cheap tournament play that figures to continue to see a steady diet of balls thrown his way for a depleted Detroit offensive unit.
Jordan Reed, Wash @ Dal (FD-$6,000 & DK-$4,700)
Believe it or not, I was actually on Jordan Reed last week. He came through for me and posted his best game of the year. I watched a lot of the Wash/Hou game and while I hated to see Alex Smith suffer a gruesome injury, it’s possible that Colt McCoy is actually an upgrade over Smith as far as Jordan Reed is concerned. The two hooked up on a late TD and McCoy seems more willing to go to Reed downfield than Smith.
Reed isn’t a far superior option to Austin Hooper or Trey Burton, but I like the combination of his matchup and secure usage at a similar price point. We’ve seen Hooper’s target totals spike in some games and that’s definitely a possibility in his Thanksgiving matchup, but New Orleans has been surprisingly effective against TEs recently. Burton’s usage is uncertain and he is almost TD dependent at this point. We should feel comfortable that Reed will get at least six targets with a possibility of 10-plus looks. A repeat of his Week 11 line of 7-71-1 is well within reach against Dallas.
Washington Redskins, Wash @ Dal (FD-$3,700 & DK-$2,600)
It’s early in the week as I write this, so there are no concrete ownership projections yet available, but I imagine that folks will flock to either Chicago or Dallas. There are arguments that support those options, as Chicago is the “best” defense on the slate and Dallas draws a matchup against a backup QB.
Washington brings a surprisingly steady history of output to the always-volatile DEF/ST position for a middle-of-the-road price. The ‘Skins defensive unit has 10 or more fantasy points in four of their past five outings and are averaging over 3.5 sacks per game during that five game stretch. It’s never fun to square-off against Ezekiel Elliott, but Washington fared well against Zeke this season, holding him to a season-low 33 rushing yards in their previous meeting with the Cowboys.