Nick Mullens, SF @ TB (FD – $6,000, DK – $5,400)
Back to back weeks I’m going with value at the QB position, and of course here sits Mullens facing the worst passing defense in the league in a game with the highest O/U on the slate. I know the ceiling isn’t crazy in the 49ers offense, but the Bucs are allowing 23 FPPG to opposing signal callers and still have only one INT to their name this season. That floor is plenty high enough, considering the dough it’s saving me.
Baker Mayfield, CLE @ CIN (FD – $7,500, DK – $5,500)
Speaking of allowing 23 FPPG to opposing QB, here’s the guy facing the only other defense in the league matching the Buccaneers generosity. The other thing that excites me about the match-up? The Bengals allow the most rushing yards to the Quarterback position. That means we get to see those Mayfield wheels in action. The rookie has been rather efficient lately, boasting a 9:2 TD:INT ratio over his last four contests and is coming off a 22.64 FP performance against the Falcons prior to the bye week. There’s no reason to spend an extra 1,500 on FanDuel but DraftKings is practically begging you to start him this week.
Nick Chubb, CLE @ CIN (FD – $7,500, DK – $6,300)
The Bengals are atrocious on defense. They allow the most FPPG to the RB position along with an absurd 153 YPG on the ground. Coming off a bye, Chubb should be fully rested after exploding for 34.4 FP against the Falcons in Week 10. This is an easy lock for your lineups.
Marlon Mack, IND vs MIA (FD – $7,000, DK – $5,500)
Thanks to facing two tough rushing defenses in a row, Mack’s price is super enticing this week in a tasty match-up against the Dolphins, especially on DraftKings where he sits as just the 12th most expensive RB on the main slate. Miami is allowing 24.1 FPPG to Running Backs this season, and the fourth most Rush YPG. Three weeks ago the Colts faced the Raiders who have very similar rush defense stats to the Phins, and Mack ripped them for 132 yards and two scores. Even with the return of Ryan Tannehill, the Colts should pull ahead early in this one, allowing Mack to do his thing.
Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, LAC vs ARI (FD – $5,400, DK – $3,700)* If Melvin Gordon is OUT
Odell Beckham Jr, NYG @ PHI (FD – $8,500, DK – $8,800)
I tend to not like paying up for the top receivers in DFS, especially in this pass-happy era of the NFL, but I’m going cheap at QB and avoiding the top-priced RBs this week to ensure I get my shares of OBJ. The Eagles are fresh out of healthy Cornerbacks. They are literally using Wide Receivers as DBs at practice. No Jalen Mills, no Ronald Darby, no way to stop OBJ. If anybody but Eli Manning was throwing the ball in New York, we’d be looking at a peak-Megatron game from OBJ. But even with Eli, it’s gonna be a fun one for fantasy.
T.Y. Hilton, IND vs MIA (FD – $7,500, DK – $6,500)
Last week was a huge confidence boost for me with Hilton, as the Colts passing game looks back on track. I’m going to ride the hot hand here, and hope the ownership is down this week against a Miami defense that has allowed the 11th fewest FPPG to opposing WRs. Despite the overall “success” against receivers this year, the Phins are also allowing the third highest Yards per Catch and fourth highest Yards per Pass Attempt, while only getting to the QB 17 times all year. A secondary that is beatable down the field and very little pressure on Andrew Luck makes a repeat of last weeks monster game a strong possibility for Hilton.
Honorable Mentions: David Moore, SEA @ CAR (FD – $5,800 , DK – $3,700)*If Doug Baldwin is OUT
Cameron Brate, TB vs SF (FD – $4,400, DK – $3,600)
We didn’t go cheap at WR or RB, so back to value searching at the TE position, chalk or not. Now that OJ Howard is on Injured Reserve, and Jameis is back under center, Cameron Brate becomes a weekly consideration despite the match-up. The 49ers have been above-average against the position but like I said its the highest O/U left on the docket and I see Jameis getting plenty of work. That means plenty of check downs to his safety valve.
Nick Vannett, SEA @ CAR (FD – $5,000, DK – $2,700)
Don’t even think about Vannett on FanDuel, but DraftKings is letting us take advantage of a great opportunity for Vannett to return value. The Panthers have allowed the most FPPG to the TE position this season, thanks to a league-leading 8 TD. Despite just four targets in the last two weeks, Vannett has found pay-dirt in two of his last three contests.
Indianapolis Colts vs MIA (FD – $4,400, DK – $2,900)
There are a slew of great DST options this week (BAL, LAC, JAC, BUF, NE), but I think people are sleeping on the Colts, and I’m all for it. The Colts are coming off a beat down of the Titans, and now sit at fifth in the NFL in takeaways. Ryan Tannehill should be a bit rusty in his return this week, in a game where he will be playing from behind with a beat up receiving corps.
Cleveland Browns @ CIN (FD – $3,100, DK – $2,800)
I like the Browns as a sneaky-good value play in Week 12, IF AJ Green sits. They are second in the league in takeaways and Cincy is just scoring 20.6 points per game over their last five.
*Photo by Erik Drost