Jameis Winston, TB vs CAR (FD – $7,500, DK – $6,000)
Underdogs at home, in the second highest O/U on the slate, against Divisional rivals. I love the spot for Winston this week. Carolina has allowed the fourth most Pass TD this season, along with 20.0 FPPG to opposing QBs. Coming off a 312 Yards, 2 TD performance in a comfortable win over San Fran, Winston is going to have to throw a ton to beat the Panthers. Week 13 POTW ceiling… replaced by FitzMagic at halftime floor.
Jared Goff, LAR @ DET (FD – $8,400, DK – $6,400)
Goff is my safest pick at QB this week, simply because I see the Lions hanging around longer than the Raiders will with Mahomes – plus the Lions Rush D since the trade for Snacks Harrison has been very solid. The Detroit secondary on the other hand is quite disturbing as a Lions fan. They are allowing the fifth highest Comp%, second highest QBR, and have the third fewest INTs this season. Goff has scored over 20 FP in four straight contests, two going for over 30. The Rams are 10 point favorites in the highest O/U on the slate, and won’t have to worry about the weather.
Christian McCaffrey, CAR @ TB (FD – $8,800, DK – $8,800)
CMC is coming off a massive 41 FP performance against SEA in a back and forth nail-biter that should resemble this weeks showdown with the Bucs. The Bucs have allowed the fourth most Rush TD this season, and 23.3 FPPG to opposing RBs. Four weeks ago McCaffrey rushed for 79 yards and 2 scores against TB, adding 5 Rec for an additional 78 yards. As the heart of the offense for any down or situation at this point, CMC is my lock-in stud for all my lineups this week.
Phillip Lindsay, DEN @ CIN (FD – $7,000, DK – $5,400)
I’m going Lindsay here with my #2 simply because of the value. You almost can’t fade him at this price facing the Bengals. I honestly think Aaron Jones has the better upside against the Cardinals in the Wisconsin weather, but the $1,300 difference on DK is too much. Cincy has allowed the second most Rush yards, and third most Rush TD this season. Andy Dalton is out, and Jeff Driskel will be heavily pressured all game. The Broncos should be riding Lindsay into the ground by the start of the second half. He’s scored over 15 FP in four of his last five contests, and there’s no reason to doubt that he’ll make it 5/6 today.
Honorable Mention: Spencer Ware, KC @ Raiders (FD – $5,200, DK – $4,000), Aaron Jones, GB vs ARI (FD – $7,600, DK – $6,700)
Kenny Golladay, DET vs LAR (FD – $7,300, DK – $6,700)
As previously stated, this game has the highest predicted score on the slate, and the Lions per usual are underdogs. This should lead to plenty of catch-up work for Matthew Stafford and his one-man WR corps. The Rams are tied for the second most Pass TD allowed this season, along with the third highest Yards per Catch. This bodes well for the ball-hawk out of Northern Illinois. He has posted three straight double digit fantasy scores, averaging 12 targets per game over that span. Marcus Peters is not going to enjoy the film sessions after this game.
Robert Woods, LAR @ DET (FD – $7,300, DK – $6,900)
My favorite DFS strategy is auto-selecting WR2-3 from offenses playing against Detroit. Teez Tabor and Nevin Lawson have been atrocious in coverage this year, and that’s not going to stop against a stud that has scored double digit FP in 9 of 11 games this season and is coming off an 11 target game. The Lions are allowing 25.9 FPPG to WRs, and if Slay shadows Cooks as he usually does with WR1s, Woods is going to be a busy man.
Honorable Mentions: Adam Humphries, TB vs CAR (FD – $6,000, DK – $4,200)
David Njoku, CLE @ HOU (FD – $5,500, DK – $4,300)
It feels like Week 13 has more enticing TE options than any other week this season. Despite going with one of the guys in the CAR-TB game, I’m going with the guy I think has the highest ceiling of the group. Houston allowed three straight opposing TEs to score. Jonnu Smith went for 2/63/1, Jordan Reed 7/71/1, and Jeff freaking Heuerman 10/83/1. Combine this with the fact that Houston has been very good against opposing WR over their last five games, means Baker is going to need Njoku to keep up with Watson today.
Cameron Brate, TB vs CAR (FD – $4,900, DK – $3,700)
I don’t think I need to justify TEs facing Carolina anymore. Cameron Brate literally has better odds at scoring a TD than the coin flip landing on heads.
Honorable Mentions: Greg Olsen, CAR @ TB (FD – $6,000, DK – $4,100)
Chicago Bears @ NYG (FD – $4,800, DK – $3,300)
I am more intrigued by using one of the match-up based values at DST this week like the Packers below, Broncos versus Driskel, or the Chiefs versus Gruden’s Raiders. But I continually found myself with the money to spend, and the lack of guts to not start the Bears. They have easily scored the most FPPG of any DST this season, only scoring single digits in one game. They lead the league in INT, and are seventh in sacks. They square off with Eli Manning in what forecasts to be a damp game at MetLife. It’s fool-proof.
Green Bay Packers vs ARI (FD – $4,400, DK – $2,800)
If you don’t happen to have the available dough to play the Bears, or have more strength than me to fade the best DST in the league, the Packers are your best bet. The forecast calls for 21 mph winds at Lambeau with a nice, welcoming snow/rain mix. That should be fun for a rookie QB who plays his home games in a comfy dome in Arizona and graduated from UCLA. The Pack have the fourth most sacks in the league and Rosen (11 INT) will be forced to drop back a whole lot as a 14 point underdog.
*Photo by Keith Allison