Week 13 MNF NFL DFS Picks: Redskins – Eagles Preview

JB reviews Week 13’s MNF match-up between Philadelphia and Washington, giving his top DFS Picks and recommended bets.

Quarterbacks

Colt McCoy, WAS @ PHI (FD – $14,000, DK – $8,800/13,200-MVP)

He’s from Texas, his name is Colt, and he ain’t afraid to sling it. My FanDuel MVP (1.5x Points) tonight, McCoy faces a depleted Eagles secondary allowing 22.1 FPPG to opposing QBs over their last 5 games. For the season they’ve allowed the 5th most Passing Yards, and have the 5th fewest INT. McCoy put up a respectable 18.92 FP in his first full game in place of injured Alex Smith, and I expect him to put up similar numbers tonight.

Carson Wentz, PHI vs WAS (FD – $16,000, DK – $10,600/15,900-MVP)

While the match-up isn’t quite as enticing as facing his own secondary, Wentz is also in a nice position tonight. The Redskins are allowing 19.97 FPPG over their last 5 games. They rank 6th in the league in INT this season however, and Wentz has scored under 15 FP two weeks in a row, which is why I prefer McCoy straight up. But with the trends of both these defenses, I prefer to get both the signal callers in my lineups tonight.

 

Running Backs

Adrian Peterson, WAS @ PHI (FD – $12,500, DK – $7,400/11,100-MVP)   

Chris Thompson, WAS @ PHI (FD – $8,000, DK – $4,400/6,600-MVP)

The RB position is a tough one tonight. In Washington AP is still banged up/”questionable” and has scored single digit FP in 3 of his last 4, while Chris Thompson is returning from his 4 game absence and should be well rested. Even if AP plays against a defense allowing the 5th highest Yards per Carry, I would assume he splits snaps fairly evenly with Thompson. I am definitely intrigued by the latter due to Philly allowing the 5th most Receptions to the RB position this season. With Jordan Reed drawing extra attention due to his recent success, I see McCoy and Thompson hooking up a lot to keep the chains moving. That is why Thompson, despite the risk, is my DraftKings (PPR) MVP tonight (1.5x Points).

Josh Adams, PHI vs WAS (FD – $13,500, DK – $8,000/12,000-MVP)

Like AP, Adams is also banged up and carries a questionable tag heading into tonight, but is also expected to play. After getting 22 carries last week, I see the snap split in PHI being a lot more lopsided than WAS, and Adams will face a defense allowing 17.58 FPPG to RB1 over their last 5. Unfortunately PHI isn’t getting their backs involved in the passing game, which limits the upside here. Regardless, Adams has two double digit FP performances in a row so he’s a safe pick tonight.

 

Wide Receivers

Josh Doctson, WAS @ PHI (FD – $10,000, DK – $6,800/10,200-MVP)

Like Thompson, I am greatly interested in Josh Doctson due to McCoy’s willingness to sling the ball around, and the Eagles willingness to allow it. They have allowed the 3rd most Receptions and 2nd most Yards to WR this season, and a whopping 18.98 FPPG to WR1 over their last 5 games. In McCoy’s first start last week, Doctson drew 10 targets, catching 6 for 66 yards. It was his first game this season with over 5 Receptions. There is of course risk involved here, as Jamison Crowder could make a return tonight. I’m hoping WAS gives him one more week to recover and rolling with Doctson on both sites.

Alshon Jeffery, PHI vs WAS (FD – $10,000, DK – $8,600/12,900-MVP)                           

Golden Tate, PHI vs WAS (FD – $9,500, DK – $7,800/10,800-MVP)

The Redskins secondary also presents a nice opportunity for the Eagles WR corps to get back on track tonight as they’ve allowed the 3rd most Receiving Yards to WR, but which one gets the most looks? Alshon Jeffery has faded since the acquisition of Golden Tate, averaging just 5.3 targets per game. Tate has been a little more involved averaging 6.6 targets but has been just as ineffective failing to top 50 yards or score. Considering the recent success of WR1 against WAS (12.26 FPPG last 5), I’m going with Jeffery over Tate tonight, as I see Wentz leaning on his top guy when Zach Ertz is bottled up (see below).

 

Tight Ends

Jordan Reed, WAS @ PHI (FD – $11,500, DK – $8,200/12,300-MVP) 

What a weird spot. Essentially the two best offensive players on both teams are Tight Ends and I don’t want to play either of them tonight. The Eagles are allowing just 5.9 FPPG to TE1 over their last 5 games, and the fourth fewest FPPG this season. Jordan Reed has been hot lately, with 19 targets, 146 yards and a TD over his last two contests. But for these prices I find it hard for him to return value in a tough match-up tonight.

Zach Ertz, PHI vs WAS (FD – $14,500, DK – $11,200/16,800-MVP)

Ditto ^. The Redskins have allowed just 5.5 FPPG to TE1 over their last 5, and the 6th fewest FPPG this season. Despite getting shut down by the Saints, Ertz has scored double digits FP in 8 of his 11 games this season. He even went 10/112 against the Titans who are #1 against TE in fantasy currently. Ertz has a much better chance at overcoming the match-up tonight, but it’s a hard pass for me with those lofty prices.

 

Defenses

I’m not a fan of the floor from either side tonight. But if you were to take a flyer on rostering a DST tonight I wouldn’t argue…too much. Eagles O-Line has allowed the 11th most sacks this season and on the other side Colt McCoy committed 4 turnovers last week. The upside is there, but I’m not interested.

 

Kickers

Dustin Hopkins, WAS @ PHI (FD – $9,000, DK – $3,200/4,800)

Jake Elliott, PHI vs WAS (FD – $9,500, DK – $3,400/5,100-MVP)

WAS is allowing 7.2 FPPG to K over the last 5 games, and PHI is allowing 8.8. I can see a backup QB struggling to score in the redzone, especially when his go-to TE is struggling to get open – so Hopkins interests me slightly. Both Kickers are an easy pass on FanDuel, but the salary relief on DraftKings could make it possible to roster the stud TEs if you are a believer tonight. Obviously I am not, therefore I did not need the salary relief.

 

Lineup Examples

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Picks Against the Spread

(Eagles (-6.0) vs Redskins: O/U 45.5)

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Redskins 20

Bets: Eagles (-6.0), Over 45.5

 

*Photo by Keith Allison

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Author: RowdyRotoJB

I'm Rowdy, I love Roto, and they call me JB.

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