Week 14 TNF NFL DFS Picks: Jaguars – Titans Preview

JB reviews Week 14’s TNF match-up between Tennessee and Jacksonville, giving his top DFS Picks and recommended bets.

Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota, TEN vs JAX (FD – $16,000, DK – $10,400/15,600*CPT)

Any offensive player in this match-up carries significant risk, made evident by the tiny O/U from Vegas. Mariota is no exception against this Jaguars defense that has allowed the third fewest Passing Yards and tied for the first fewest Passing TD this season. However, over their last five games opposing QB have scored 20.38 FPPG. One of the contributing factors has been via the ground. For the season JAX has given up the most Rushing Yards and Rushing TD to the QB position. Mariota has 10 rushing attempts twice this season, and took off seven times the last time these teams faced. He has scored at least 22 FP in four of his last five, with 2 TD in each of those four games. Despite the stinginess of the Jags, they rank in the bottom half of the league in INT and Sacks, which means I’m going with Mariota tonight and hoping his legs can keep the chains moving.

Cody Kessler, JAX @ TEN (FD – $13,500, DK – $9,000/13,500*CPT)

On the other side of the field, the Titans defense ranks directly behind Jacksonville in both fewest Passing Yards and fewest Passing TD allowed this season. While they too rank in the bottom half in INT and Sacks, there’s no way Cody Kessler travels on a short week and puts up useful fantasy numbers tonight. Last week in his first start of the season he scored 8.8 FP, throwing for 150 yards with a fumble. I find his price tags quite offensive.

 

Running Backs

Dion Lewis, TEN vs JAX (FD – $11,000, DK – $7,400/11,100*CPT)   

Derrick Henry, TEN vs JAX (FD – $12,000, DK – $7,000/10,500*CPT)

The Titans backfield has almost become a complete 50/50 split, and recently Henry has been the beneficiary due to scoring four TD in his last five games. Lewis on the other hand hasn’t seen double digit FP since Week 9 against Dallas, and that was largely in part to catching four passes for 60 yards and a score. This is why I prefer Lewis over Henry tonight. Because like Dallas, Jacksonville’s defense has been fantastic against the run, allowing the third fewest FPPG to RB this season and just 5.9 FPPG to RB1 in their last five games. RB2 like Wendell Smallwood and Nyheim Hines found success via the air against this Defense, and I think Lewis has the potential to scrape out value if he can turn one of those screens into 6 points.

Leonard Fournette, JAX @ TEN (FD – $17,000, DK – $12,000/18,000*CPT)

T.J. Yeldon, JAX @ TEN (FD – $8,500, DK – $6,400/9,600*CPT)

The one guy I have no concerns about tonight, aside from a possible ejection. That is because a healthy Fournette is match-up proof. He has scored over 21 FP in three straight contests, with four TD over that span. You best believe Kessler’s number one objective tonight is to hand the rock to this guy, especially with how Tennessee’s defense has handled RB1’s recently. The Titans are allowing 13.74 FPPG to RB1 over their last five, but that’s with the complete shutdown of New England in Week 10. Isaiah Crowell, Lamar Miller, Marlon Mack, and of course Ezekiel Elliott all enjoyed double digit outings in their match-ups with this defense. Yeldon on the other hand presents a sneaky value opportunity despite the return of Fournette.  Kessler checked down to Yeldon eight times last week, and even if that number decreases slightly with Fournette in during early-downs, Yeldon still has a legitimate shot at being the teams leading receiver.

 

Wide Receivers

Corey Davis, TEN vs JAX (FD – $14,000, DK – $8,400/12,600*CPT)

Tajae Sharpe, TEN vs JAX (FD – $10,000, DK – $4,600/6,900*CPT)

I think this may be the first game that I want to fade every wide receiver from both sides. Jacksonville allowed the fewest Receiving TD to WR this season, along with the fourth lowest FPPG. Over the last five games, they are allowing just 10.06 FPPG to WR1, with Antonio Brown being the only one to top 20 FP. The match-up is tough to say the least. Davis has scored 20+ FP in two of his last five games, scoring three times in the span while averaging 7 targets per game. The kid is good, but he’s not Antonio Brown quite yet, which means those lofty prices only leave room for disappointment from his fantasy owners tonight against Jalen Ramsey. Sharpe has been the clear #2 choice for Mariota recently, averaging 5.2 targets per game over the last five, and scoring double digit FP twice. The other three games on the other hand, were goose eggs. The DraftKings price makes him a very intriguing dart throw, but neither are recommended tonight.

Donte Moncrief, JAX @ TEN (FD – $7,000, DK – $5,600/8,400*CPT)                           

Dede Westbrook, JAX @ TEN (FD – $8,000, DK – $6,800/10,200*CPT)

The Titans are no cakewalk for WR either, but have surrendered 25.6 FPPG to WR this season. Over their last five games they are allowing 13.64 FPPG to WR1, getting torched by T.Y. Hilton in Week 11. So this secondary is definitely beatable…..by Andrew Luck. The prices are all great for this WR corps, but how can you trust them with Cody Kessler at the helm? You cannot.

 

Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith, TEN vs JAX (FD – $9,000, DK – $5,000/7,500*CPT) 

Anthony Firkser, TEN vs JAX (FD – $8,000, DK – $4,000/6,000*CPT)

I feel like its going to be a TE kind of a game for the Titans tonight. Jacksonville is tied for the 5th most TD allowed to the TE position this season, thanks to Eric Ebron mostly, and are allowing 8.5 FPPG this season. Jonnu has only seen over three targets once all season, but has been very efficient lately, scoring three TD in his last five contests. Firkser has emerged as a viable option in this offense, as Mariota has yet to miss a connection with him albeit there have only been 13 so far. He has averaged over ten yards per catch this season, has three straight games over 40 yards, and scored his first TD last week against the Jets. The production is trending upward, and since the Colts were able to do it with Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron three weeks ago – why not go double TE tonight? Someone has to score for the Titans tonight, and I think its both of these guys.

 

Defenses

Jaguars @ TEN (DK – $5,800/8,700*CPT)

Titans vs JAX (DK – $6,000/9,000*CPT)

Despite this game having the lowest O/U of the week, and featuring Cody Kessler, I’m not that excited about playing either DST on DraftKings tonight. Both defenses have less than 10 INT and 30 Sacks on the season. I don’t see either team being forced to throw at any point, or the Jags wanting the ball out of Fournette’s hands. There will be plenty of punts, and the low scores create a nice comfy floor for both DSTs, but surprisingly I don’t think the ceilings are as high as we want.

 

Kickers

Ryan Succop, TEN vs JAX (FD – $9,500, DK – $3,600/5,100*CPT)

Josh Lambo, JAX @ TEN (FD – $9,000, DK – $3,400/5,100*CPT)

I love kickers. Keep them in fantasy forever. I especially love the spot Josh Lambo will be in tonight. The Titans defense boasts the leagues best Red Zone TD%. When you combine this with Cody Kessler as the opposing QB, you get a very busy Lambo. He has scored double digit FP in 3 of his last five games, and the fact that he costs less than Succop on both sites is the cherry on top.

 

Lineup Examples

You got to get weird sometimes on Single Game slates, and Same-team RBs, Same-team TEs, and a K is as weird as you can get.

fd

dk

Picks Against the Spread

(Titans (-5.0) vs Jaguars: O/U 37.5)

Final Score Prediction: Titans 20, Jaguars 13

Bets: Titans (-5.0), Under 37.5

 

*Photo by Chipermc

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Author: RowdyRotoJB

I'm Rowdy, I love Roto, and they call me JB.

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