NFL Conference Championship Bet of the Week

Spencer Aguiar digs into his top rowdy bet for the Conference Championship.

Welcome back to The Combine Sports and another edition of the Bet of the Week article. We increased our record to (8-2-1) with our two-team teaser of the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints. Recommending exotic wagers isn’t something that I often do, but the Divisional Round featured an interesting dynamic that we don’t often see. The general public found themselves on all four road underdogs, while most of the wise guy money poured in on the favorites. The unusual dichotomy of the bet splits presented a unique opportunity to tease the Saints and Chiefs to around a pick’em in both contests.

It is rare to see the public backing the underdog team(s), but the AFC/NFC Conference Championships are beginning to take an identical shape to last weekend. At the time of writing this article, 51 percent of the spread bets and 59 percent of the moneyline wagers are coming in on the Los Angeles Rams over the New Orleans Saints, and while it isn’t as extreme as the first game, the New England Patriots are getting slightly under 50 percent of the spread wagers and nearly 60 percent of the moneyline bets.

The Los Angeles Rams vs. the New Orleans Saints (-3.0) has seen some interesting movement to begin the week. The Saints quickly jumped up to -3.5 within a few hours of the market opening but some public money has sent this line back down to -3.0 at most books. The total has stayed around 57 points all week and is a challenging market to enter. I lean towards the under being the “right” side, but offensive fireworks could ensue, especially from New Orleans.

I think Los Angeles could find themselves in an awkward position this week, one in which they aren’t able to get their ground game going against the Saints’ third-ranked defense in rushing efficiency. Without the ability to get a tempo set on the ground, the Rams’ passing offense could also struggle. If you take away the Week 11 shootout against Kansas City and the meaningless game during Week 17, Jared Goff has been brutal without wide receiver Cooper Kupp. From Weeks 1-10, Goff averaged 313.4 yards, throwing for 22 touchdowns and committing only six total turnovers with Kupp available. But in Weeks 12-16 and the Divisional Round, he has averaged 225.6 yards per game, which includes a total of two touchdowns and nine total turnovers. I think this game could turn ugly quickly and believe the Saints will win going away.

New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3.0): O/U 56.0

In what has become a yearly tradition, the second-seeded New England Patriots will take part in the AFC Championship game for the eighth consecutive season. However, their opponent and venue will be unique. For the first time in Chiefs franchise history, the AFC Championship game will be held in Kansas City. It will also be the first conference title game held outside of New England, Denver or Indianapolis in 15 seasons.

New England has had an up-and-down year, going 8-0 at home but only 3-5 on the road. Those splits are not necessarily uncommon for an NFL team, but the lack of success outside of Foxboro is alarming. The Patriots graded out slightly worse in offensive success rate during their games on the road, but the biggest issue has been their defense. At home, New England ranked 13th against the run and fifth against the pass. Conversely, though, they rated just 28th in success against the run and 18th against the pass in games outside of Massachusetts.

The general public can be forgetful with their recollection of a season. I know we have seen the Patriots pull Houdini-esque escapes year after year, but their regression has been ignored after the thorough thumping they put on the Los Angeles Chargers. I did think New England looked good against the Chargers, but a lot of that had to do with Los Angeles being in a terrible position. The Chargers looked like a team on fumes, which would make sense given the fact that they were playing their third straight road game and second straight early game on Sunday.

The Patriots should be given credit for taking advantage of an ideal situation, but let’s pump the brakes when it comes to forgiving their backslide this year. Rob Gronkowski has been virtually non-existent for the team since Week 14 and has only caught five passes in the Patriots’ last four games. He isn’t right physically, and the team doesn’t have many weapons to turn to after Josh Gordon’s suspension. Julian Edelman and James White are the only two players producing as of late, and a two-man show will not get the job done against a prolific Kansas City offense.

Bill Belichick is a mastermind when it comes to taking away what you do best, so Chiefs running back Damien Williams will need to be productive to open up the passing game for Kansas City, but it is difficult for me to imagine that the Patriots will have enough firepower to keep up in this battle. New England may be able to dictate some of the early proceedings, which could result in this game being slightly lower scoring than the public is anticipating, but I’d imagine that we see the Chiefs find some rhythm and eventually pull away late.


Rowdy Bold Prediction: Kansas City 31 – New England 23

Recommended Bet: Kansas City (-3)


Bet of the Week Record : 
(8-2-1)

NFL Divisional Round Bet of the Week

Spencer Aguiar digs into his top rowdy bet for the Divisional Round

Welcome back to The Combine Sports and another edition of the Bet of the Week article. We increased our record to (7-2-1) on the season with a Dallas Cowboys moneyline winner over the Seattle Seahawks. While the Cowboys were safe in the closing minutes of the game, many spread bets were decided in the final minute. The Seahawks were without placekicker Sebastian Janikowski, who hurt his thigh at the end of the first half on a long field goal attempt. You never quite realize just how important a kicker is to a team until you see that most units don’t have anyone else that is capable of making a kick on the entire roster.

After the Seahawks scored with 1:18 left in the fourth quarter to get the game to 24-20, they decided to go for two and not kick the extra point to make it a field goal game. Naturally, Chris Carson rushed up the middle for a successful two-point conversion, and the game ended 24-22. At the time I released my article, the Cowboys were down to -1.5 or less at all books, but many Cowboys wagers throughout the week laid -2.0 for a push or even -2.5 for a loss. The number did jump slightly back up right before the game on Saturday, but the moneyline recommendation required only five to 10 cents of extra juice and kept us safe.

The Divisional Round is unusual for a few reasons. There appears to be some recency bias attached to the teams that were able to advance last weekend. It doesn’t mean that they aren’t the right side of the contest, but the public has backed every road dog for the four-game slate. More often than not, that usually is a recipe for disaster, but your average bettor has been successfully hitting underdog wagers for the past few weeks and will look to continue the trend.

The Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams (-7) will give us a stylistic mismatch that both teams will need to exploit to be successful. The Rams will have a chance to overwhelm a slightly overrated Cowboys defense that ranks just 27th in the league in success against the pass. That statistic will surprise some, but they have allowed 49 percent of passes to grade out successfully. On the flip side, the Cowboys will try to defeat the Rams through a ground-and-pound mentality. Los Angeles is 28th against the run, and Ezekiel Elliott will need to come up huge for Dallas to have a chance. I am afraid that if the Cowboys get behind early, Dak Prescott will struggle to keep them in the game against such a high-powered opposition. For that reason, I think we see the Rams win and cover.

And the Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots (-4) provides one of the more difficult handicaps that we have this week. The math points to the Chargers being the right side, but the personnel advantages, experience and home-field advantage should favor the Patriots. I think these two units are more similar than they are different on the playing field so these edges that the Patriots have could loom a little larger than usual. We are probably looking at around a one-score game for the majority of the contest, but Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn is in way over his head against Bill Belichick and could find his conservative play-calling to be the teams undoing. It is a challenging game to handicap all together and might be one that I avoid entirely. Still, though, I think the Patriots will find a way to win and cover, most likely due to egregious coaching mistakes from Lynn.

Bet of the Week:

If you thought last weekend got weird with a moneyline wager, you are in for a treat during the Divisional Round. I’d consider myself pretty reserved when it comes to unconventional wager types. It’s not that I am unwilling to think outside the box, but I do fit into a particular stereotype of trying to find value more naturally.

However, with the overreaction and recency bias that the industry has experienced this week, I think we have a unique opportunity to attack the slate from a different angle. The Saints, Chiefs and Rams all make a compelling case to be added to a two-team six-point teaser. I could justify any combination, but for the sake of the article, I will be going with the Chiefs and the Saints. By teasing the Chiefs to +1 and the Saints to -2, you should be looking at a -120 wager. If you are unfamiliar with how teasers work, both games will need to win for the bet to be graded a winner. If one of the plays pushes, the wager will be classified as no action.

Indianapolis faces a tall task of being asked to go on the road three weeks in a row to advance to the AFC Championship. Their Week 17 game in Tennessee can be considered a virtual playoff game since it was a win or go home situation for both themselves and the Titans, and it takes a lot of energy, both mentally and physically, to get ramped up for three huge contests.

Most people that are backing the Colts see a team that has won nine of their last 10 regular season games after beginning the year 1-5. And while there is no doubt that the Colts are improved and healthy, there is an underlying story worth mentioning. If you exclude the first six weeks of the season for Indianapolis, they have faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses and the leagues easiest schedule in passing attacks. In those games, the Colts ranked 19th in success rate against the pass.

Indianapolis plays zone on defense about 75 percent of the time, and there are a few things that can break apart that style. A speedy wide receiver to stretch the field would be one. Tyreek Hill is most likely the fastest player in the NFL, so the Chiefs have that handled easily. The second thing would be a versatile tight end. Athletic tight ends that can cause mismatches are a killer to the zone. Travis Kelce is arguably the most diverse and skillful player at the position. And last, but not least, a quarterback comfortable in play-action situations. Patrick Mahomes operates out of play-action 27 percent of the time, averaging 8.6 yards per play. Both of those two statistics equate to top-five in the league.

As far as the Saints game is concerned, During the last three starts of the regular season, Eagles quarterback Nick Foles transformed the offense away from their run-first mentality and into one of the more efficient passing attacks. They held a 48 percent passing success rate from Weeks 15-17, good for 11th best in the league and increased their explosive passing by over one percent, rising from 21st overall to 10th.

The issue when breaking down statistics from a short duration of time is that some incongruities can start forming. Foles beat a Washington Redskins team in Week 17 that had nothing to play for and a Texans team that was trending towards being the worst passing defense in the NFL between Week’s 14-17. The Rams performance does deserve some credit, but all three scores were from running the football, and as we described earlier, the Rams are ranked just 28th in efficiency against the run.

Aside from all the givens of where Philadelphia could or should struggle, the most significant liability remains their pass defense. Their winning streak has masked the fact that they are grading out 30th in the league from Week’s 11-17 in success rate against the pass, allowing 7.6 yards per attempt. The Superdome is a quick building to play inside, and the already suspect secondary should get lit up by Drew Brees and company. I don’t like pinpointing the game in Week 11 that saw the Saints beat the Eagles 48-7 at home, but I do not see there being some massive difference with Nick Foles under center instead of Carson Wentz. I doubt we are looking at a 41-point encore, but this has the chance to get ugly again.

Rowdy Bold Prediction:

Kansas City 38 – Indianapolis 24 

New Orleans 34 – Philadelphia 17


Recommended Bet: Two-team six-point teaser (Kansas City +1 with New Orleans -2) 


Bet of the Week Record : 
(7-2-1)

NFL Wild-Card Round Bet of the Week

Spencer Aguiar digs into his top rowdy bet for the Wild-Card Round

Welcome back to The Combine Sports and another edition of the Bet of the Week article. After a long season, the playoffs are finally upon us! We finished the regular season with a (6-2-1) record but did suffer a brutal loss during our last article in Week 16. The New York Jets +3 over the Green Bay Packers looked like a foregone conclusion with the Jets leading 35-20 in the fourth quarter, but a combination of boneheaded penalties from New York mixed with a ridiculous performance by Aaron Rodgers forced the game into overtime. Naturally, the Packers received the opening kickoff in extra time, and the rest was history.

If you are going to bet sports, you need to have an extremely short memory. A single bet should never make or break you (assuming you are following proper bankroll management), and these are situations that we need to brush off and quickly forget. When you let a bad beat linger in your mind for too long, that is when you stop accurately accessing lines the way they need to be broken down.

The Wild-Card round of the playoffs features four quality matchups on Saturday and Sunday. Early money has driven the Indianapolis Colts from +2.5 to +1 at most books, with the over/under bouncing back and forth between 47 and 49. I believe the Colts are the right side of this contest and did fancy over 47 when the line first opened up, but this game is going to come down to how the Indianapolis offense decides to attack the Texans defense. If they take an approach of trying to beat Houston with their run game and attempt to set the tempo with running back Marlon Mack, it could turn into a long Saturday for Colts money and over bettors. However, if they let Andrew Luck open up the playbook and come out with an aggressive approach, the Colts and over should both materialize into prosperous wagers.

The Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) and Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) just missed out on being my main breakdown of the week. Outside of any statistical mismatches being included, the Chargers got the worst luck of the draw of any organization in the playoffs. There 12-4 record would have won any other division in the AFC, but instead, they are forced to travel on the road to take on a robust, hard-hitting Baltimore team. To make matters even worse, the NFL scheduled them as the early game on Sunday morning, which has historically been a massive disadvantage for west coast teams traveling on the road. I am aware that the Chargers have won their last four games that have kicked off at 10:00 PT or earlier and that they are 7-0 this season in games held outside of Los Angeles, but this is an extremely difficult stylistic matchup for the Chargers. Can they win? Of course. But it is going to take a gritty effort. I will be laying the 2.5 points with Baltimore but do hope I am wrong for the sake of my Chargers futures wager that I placed before the season started.

And the Philadelphia Eagles (+5.5) versus the Chicago Bears (-5.5) is our last game that will be played on Sunday. The total currently resides at 41 points, and I think we are in store of a low-scoring affair. Nick Foles leading the Eagles back into the playoffs is why we watch sports, but I can’t help but feel like the magical run is going to come crashing down against the NFL’s best defense. If you exclude Week 17’s performance against the Washington Redskins, Foles has the Eagles grading out 17th in the league in success rate passing during his previous two starts — which includes a Week 16 game against the Houston Texans that rank 22nd in defensive efficiency against the pass. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is a liability for Chicago, no doubt about it, but this probably won’t be the game that he stunts the Bears progression in the playoffs. I look for Chicago to hold Philadelphia in check and most likely cover the 5.5 points while staying under the total.

Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) versus the Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) O/U 43.0

Our bet this week brings us to Arlington, Texas for a repeat of Week 3’s showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys. During the early season confrontation, the Seahawks captured a 24-13 home victory. Russell Wilson led the way for Seattle with a 109.8 passer rating, adding 192 yards through the air, two touchdowns and no interceptions. His 61.5 percent completion rate was 4.1 percent lower than his season average, but he was his usual game-managing self during the win.

I don’t want to get too hung up on a Week 3 meeting because both of these teams are completely different than they were to start the season, but there are a few points of emphasis that I would like to make. Seattle rushed for 113 yards as a team, but it did take them 39 carries (2.9 average) to eclipse the 100-yard mark. Most of the team’s success starts with their ground-and-pound mentality, but Dallas featured the fourth most efficient rushing defense in the NFL in 2018, and they were able to slow down a lot of what Seattle was attempting to do.

None of this may have registered on the scoreboard, but that had more to do with Dallas’ horrific passing attack in the game. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott finished the contest 19-for-34, throwing for 168 passing yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. The two interceptions proved costly, but they weren’t the only blunders that the offense had on the day.

While Dallas did bludgeon the Seahawks on the ground, gaining 8.7 yards per carry en route to 166 total yards rushing, Ezekiel Elliott committed a pivotal fumble in the second quarter that stunted a Dallas drive in Seattle territory. Those three crucial turnovers negated the fact that Dallas outgained Seattle in yardage by eight yards (303 to 295) and averaged nearly a full yard more per play.

If we fast forward to the present, there are a few additional alarming signs for the Seahawks. They have been impressive this season on offense, ranking eighth in total offensive efficiency and 12th in success rate rushing the football, but the team is just 24th overall in the league in success rate passing, recording a successful play only 44 percent of the time. The reason for the disparity in efficiency versus success has a lot to do with the explosive plays that Seattle has been able to connect on this season. The Seahawks rank 8th in the league in explosive rushes and 10th in passes. Being dependant on big-plays isn’t necessarily a negative, but the Cowboys rank inside the top-six when it comes to preventing long plays of any kind. Without the ability to convert lengthy runs or passes, Seattle could find themselves in trouble if they fall behind early.

The biggest knock on the Cowboys this year has been their inability to pass the football. Through 16 weeks, they ranked 27th in efficiency through the air and 20th in success rate. However, when you condense the statistics to include only Week 9 through Week 16, which is when the Cowboys acquired wide receiver Amari Cooper, they are 7th in the NFL in passing success rate. The one noteworthy thing to mention is that Cooper has performed better against man-to-man defenses than zone, and Seattle plays zone primarily. It isn’t a deal-breaker by any means since Seattle’s secondary isn’t the “Legion of Boom” that they once were under players such as Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas, but it does present an additional caveat to consider.

Russell Wilson shouldn’t be counted out of this by any means, and there are undoubtedly multiple paths to victory in this tough matchup for both units. But I just think that Dallas has a substantial chance to control the tempo if they can limit their turnovers, and Elliott has a huge possibility to feast against a weak Seattle run defense. I don’t love the fact that some considerable Seahawks money has taken this from -2.5 to -1.5, but it has given us a better price, and I do believe we will see some sharp money come back in on Dallas as the game gets closer. With the moneyline currently sitting right around -120, I think that is probably the best way to play this game as of right now.

Rowdy Bold Prediction: Dallas 27 – Seattle 20

Recommended Bet: Dallas Moneyline 


Bet of the Week Record : 
(6-2-1)

NFL Week 16 Bet of the Week

Spencer Aguiar digs into his top rowdy bet for Week 16 of the NFL season

Welcome back to The Combine Sports and another edition of the Bet of the Week article. We increased our record to (6-1-1) on the season with an excellent 41-17 Minnesota Vikings (-7) victory. Laying a touchdown worth of points isn’t one of my favorite betting strategies, but sometimes you have to step out of your comfort zone when value presents itself.

We were also able to provide winners on our two other recommendations of the Indianapolis Colts -3 over the Dallas Cowboys and the Carolina Panthers +6.5 over the New Orleans Saints. While those aren’t graded towards the official “Bet of the Week” yearly record, they were winners for anyone that chose to follow the picks.

With Week 16 upon us, I know I sound like a broken record here, but man, this is a brutal betting slate. It makes me wish I didn’t call some of the other weeks a struggle to handicap because this card is appalling. The Los Angeles Chargers and the Baltimore Ravens under 45 points was one of the plays that intrigued me, but it dropped nearly 3.5 points before I could get the article posted. If you can find under 21.5 in the first half, that is probably the way to play the game now, but even that number appears to be gone.

With a couple of days left in the week, it looks like the public is coming in on the Redskins, Chargers, Cowboys, Falcons, Vikings, Bears and Chiefs. I think the opposite side can be argued in most cases, but a lot of those games still present uncertainty. The last couple of weeks in an NFL season will always become difficult because of the lack of motivation some of the eliminated teams will exhibit. It is tough to tell what we should expect, and that backs us into a corner when trying to handicap these contests.

Green Bay Packers (-3.0) versus the New York Jets (+3.0) O/U 47.0

In what has become one of the stranger matchups of the week, the (5-8-1) Green Bay Packers will go on the road to face the (4-10) New York Jets. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was initially ruled out for the game after suffering a groin injury in Week 15’s loss to the Chicago Bears, but after experiencing some backlash for quitting on his team, the 35-year-old has now been ruled active for Sunday’s proceedings.

The loss of Rodgers initially sent this number on a five-point swing in the Jets favor, going from +3 to -2, but it has settled back into its initial price at most books of +3 with the news of Rodgers being active. One of the most interesting things to me is that although a five-point shift is a lot, it never crossed a key number after moving off plus-three. As an example, a movement from -3 to -8 would have a lot more substance than a move from +3 to -2. In our hypothetical situation, you sail past three significant numbers (minus-3, minus-6 and minus-7.) However, in the actual movement of the bet, all we saw was that the price was driven off +3, transferred through 0 and stopped before it reached three on the other end. The only significant move was the move off of three and even going through 0 doesn’t do all that much.

I know that may sound like useless information, but I always find movements interesting because they tip the hand of the sportsbook in a lot of ways. Once you figure out what the public side of the game is going to be, you can start gauging the risk that casinos are willing to take based on their movement. Books never want to find themselves in a situation to be “middled” (landing between the opening number and the closing number), and if they think they are on the right side of a game, you won’t see them budge all that much.

Sadly, that still doesn’t quite tell us exactly where this number is heading and what the casinos will need with a 50/50 split at many books right now. I do think that some signs point towards them liking the Packers with the number failing to get to Green Bay +3 when Rodgers was ruled out initially, but in the same breath, I don’t think much can be taken from it because he was announced back in so quickly, and the number was hovering in a dead zone price wise.

Breaking down a game goes a lot further than movements and bet slips, and there are a few things that stuck out to me from a statistical and matchup perspective. It is always interesting when you start breaking down a game in a more in-depth fashion and find potential matchup advantages that you would never have expected. On the season, the Packers rank fifth in the NFL in offensive success rate running the football at 53 percent but grade out just 18th in the league when it comes to success rate passing at 45%. Defensively, the Jets are 11th in the league in success against the run at 46 percent and fourth in the NFL against the pass at 44 percent. I know Rodgers has been playing injured practically the whole season, and the team is 5-8-1 for a reason, but I was surprised to see just how much the Packers have struggled through the air on the year.

While the early-season injury hasn’t helped Rodgers and his new groin injury will only make things worse, a lack of support on offense hasn’t made it any easier for the two-time Most Valuable Player either. Wide receiver Davante Adams has been brilliant, but outside of Adams and the emergence of running back Aaron Jones in Week 8, other Packers players have offered very little help.

Unfortunately for Green Bay, Jones suffered a sprained MCL in Week 15 against the Chicago Bears and was just placed on the injured reserved list for the rest of the season. I know we live in an age where running backs mean nothing to the point total, but the loss of Jones will be significant now that more of the burden is going to be placed on an injured Aaron Rodgers. Backup running back Jamaal Williams has proven that he can’t handle a full workload, averaging 3.7 yards on 98 carries this season. It seems likely that the Packers will attempt to get Williams going early in the game, but he has looked mediocre all year and has been limited with a toe injury himself.

To make matters even worse, the Packers will be without their second-best wide receiver Randall Cobb and offensive tackle Jason Spriggs. The loss of Spriggs will be negated if Bryan Bulaga can play — which appears like it will be the case, but the team will be left with zero depth outside of Alex Pankey. Rodgers has been hit the third most in the NFL during the last eight weeks, and even though the Jets only rank 24th on the year in sack rate, they rank top-three in QB hits, QB pressures and sacks the last four weeks. A lot of that damage came against Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson in Week 15, but the Jets are playing tough and have not given up on the season.

Since Week 11, the Jets rank fourth in the NFL in success against the pass and 14th against the run. The Packers in the same time frame are 32nd against the pass and 12th against the run. Kenny Clark, a key figure of the Packers front-four remains out, and the potential lack of pressure to Jets quarterback Sam Darnold would help the rookie to settle into the game.

After nearly a month without Darnold in the lineup, he returned to face the Buffalo Bills in Week 14, throwing for 170 yards to go along with one TD and one INT. And last week, he put together a 253-yard performance against the Houston Texans, converting on two TD passes with no interceptions. Small sample sizes need to be taken with a grain of salt, but in the last two weeks, the Jets rank 10th in passing success rate and appear to be trending in the right direction.

Some might view Rodgers giving it a go on Sunday as heroic, and others might think it is dumb to put your injured franchise player into a game that doesn’t matter. You can make the argument for either, but I can’t seem to figure out what the motivation is for Green Bay in this game. Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks of our era, but even Batman needs Robin from time to time. I am not overly enthusiastic about the selection and still don’t entirely trust the Jets, but I struggle to find a single playmaker on the Packers outside of Davante Adams this week. I would tread lightly on the play if you do place a wager, but there is enough pointing in the direction of the Jets being the right side. I’d anticipate that this number should trickle back down as the week goes on and would jump on three before it does start to decrease.

Rowdy Bold Prediction: New York 23 – Green Bay 20

Recommended Bet: New York (+3)

Bet of the Week Record : (6-1-1)

 

 

NFL Week 15 Bet of the Week

Spencer Aguiar digs into his top rowdy bet for Week 15 of the NFL season

Welcome back to The Combine Sports and another edition of the Bet of the Week article. Last weekend was about all you can ever ask for as a gambler. We found the winner’s circle with two plus-five underdogs that prevailed as outright victors (Colts and 49ers) and scrambled late in the Cowboys versus Eagles game to get the total over 43 points.

Our 3-0 week increases our total to (5-1-1) since starting this write-up in Week 11, and we will attempt to keep the momentum rolling on what appears to be a less exciting weekend of value. Picking and choosing your spots to attack is essential to success in sports betting, which means that just because we expanded our bankroll, we shouldn’t foolishly be putting our funds back on the line without good reason to do so.

Week 15 provides a collection of semi-substantial road dogs for us to have to decipher if there is any value. During the Sunday and Monday games, eight of the 13 matchups feature a home team that is favored by three or more points, with six of those contests coming in at minus-six or higher. That isn’t necessarily a negative, but I am not usually a huge fan of road underdogs that are receiving around 50 percent of the wagers and a touchdown worth of points. On the flip side, I am also not a major proponent of laying points in what looks like the public side of the game. That doesn’t mean I never do those two things, but I am not overly excited about this card, and very few of those situations are jumping out to me.

While the slate isn’t the most enticing I have seen this season, three games have caught my attention. The Panthers +6.5 versus the New Orleans Saints is intriguing for a few reasons. New Orleans will be making their third trip on the road in the past three weeks and will have to go into Carolina for a Monday night game that presumably will be the Panthers essential Super Bowl. Carolina isn’t mathematically eliminated from the playoff picture, but they would need a handful of things to happen and should be able to play pressure-free football in front of a raucous crowd. Ultimately, I decided to leave that game off of my official “Bet of the Week” card, but there is some value to be had on Carolina if you can stomach opposing the high-powered Saints during a prime-time game.

The Indianapolis Colts -3 over the Dallas Cowboys is another game that has piqued my curiosity. I initially began the week anticipating this being my selection when they were at -2.5 and even wrote the write up for it, but with the number shifting to -3 and T.Y. Hilton being questionable for the game on Sunday, I will ultimately leave it off my card. I do have a bet on them at -2.5 but can’t fully justify it at its new price.

Miami Dolphins (+7.0) versus the Minnesota Vikings (-7.0) O/U 44.5

As you become more accustomed to my style and how I approach these games, you will realize that I mostly try to find value in underdogs, but this week presents a unique opportunity.

The Minnesota Vikings were embarrassed on national television during Monday night’s road debacle against the Seattle Seahawks by a score of 21-7. The Vikings looked anemic on offense and were verbally destroyed by the disastrous Monday Night Football announcing crew. I think it has become a widespread sentiment that the trio of Jason Witten, Booger McFarland and Joe Tessitore have done a pretty atrocious job this season of calling games — but for the Vikings to be lambasted in front of millions of viewers, it resonates in the mind of the average fan all week, even if they know that the source isn’t the most credible.

And the reason for this is simple. Our eyes were able to confirm the outlandish comments that were being made about Minnesota during the broadcast. Some of them were justified, but they were very harsh to a team that seemingly suffered every bad break imaginable during the game. That doesn’t excuse quarterback Kirk Cousins poor play or offensive coordinator John DeFilippo’s lousy play-calling, and someone had to be accountable for the embarrassment that was Monday night, which is why DeFilippo lost his job with what transpired during the game.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Miami Dolphins pulled out one of the all-time great shockers against the New England Patriots, completing a hook-and-lateral on the final play of the game for 69 yards to stun New England. The most iconic part of that play to me will always be running back Kenyan Drake outrunning Rob Gronkowski to get into the end zone and watching Gronk stumble near the goal line.

The differing outcomes last week does have me moderately surprised that we haven’t seen more Miami Dolphins money come in, but I am not concerned when the ticket slips are just about 50/50 on the game. Sharp bettors don’t seem overly interested in grabbing a touchdown with Miami this week, and I think it makes sense from a statistical breakdown of the game.

Miami Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard, who is tied for the league-lead in interceptions this year, is doubtful for Sunday’s game –which would be a massive blow to an already struggling Miami defense. The Dolphins rank 24th in overall defensive efficiency on the year and 26th in passing defense. I know the narrative of Kirk Cousins being overpaid and incapable of beating a good team has been shoved down our throats this week, but Miami is an overrated team that is entering a classic letdown spot after last week’s season-altering victory.

The Vikings have struggled to get anything going this year on the ground, but I believe that Dalvin Cook being in and out of the lineup has caused them to grade out 31st in overall run efficiency. If we look at Minnesota’s rushing success rate the last two weeks when Cook has been fully healthy, the Vikings are grading out ninth in the NFL with a 50 percent success rate rushing. The impressive part about that is it features Monday’s fiasco in the statistics and still shows the success they have been having on the ground.

When breaking down Miami’s offense, I struggle to find how they can be successful if Kirk Cousins does get the Vikings off to a quick start. The Dolphins have had most of their success on the ground this season, but if they get behind in a challenging road game, quarterback Ryan Tannehill is going to have his hands full. Miami ranks 20th in passing efficiency, 28th in offensive line adjusted sack rate and they rank outside the top-24 in the league when it comes to offensive success rate passing and explosive runs and passes.

Both teams have a lot to play for this weekend, but I could see the Dolphins struggling to find any success on offense and forcing throws if the game gets away from them early –which is how blowouts start taking form. I would imagine that Cousins and the Vikings won’t be holding anything back either and should try to make a statement offensively. Like I mentioned above, you won’t find me laying these amount of points often, but sometimes you have to be willing to step outside your comfort zone when a situation presents itself.

Rowdy Bold Prediction: Minnesota 31 – Miami 13

Recommended Bet: Minnesota (-7)

Bet of the Week Record : (5-1-1)

 

 

 

NFL Week 14 Bet of the Week

Spencer Aguiar digs into his top rowdy bets for Week 14 of the NFL season

Welcome back to The Combine Sports and another edition of the Bet of the Week article. It’s always nice to have a pressure-free bet that easily gets us to the winner’s circle, and that is precisely what the Houston Texans -4.5 granted us against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.

In last week’s article, we talked about how even though the Texans are an overrated team by all statistical metrics, they would be able to effectively run the football against a Browns team that is ranked dead last in the NFL in defending explosive running plays. Lamar Miller carried the ball 19 times for 103 yards, and Alfred Blue added another 54 yards on the ground, which doesn’t include Blue’s 30-yard touchdown scamper that was taken back because of a penalty late in the game.

On the flip side of the ball, we were also accurately able to depict some of the potential struggles that Baker Mayfield might encounter on the day. The Texans came into the contest ranked second in the NFL in defending both explosive runs and passes and were the first quality defense that Mayfield had faced since his three-game explosion against the Chiefs, Falcons and Bengals, who were all ranked in the bottom four defending the run.

The ability for the Browns to get running back Nick Chubb going on the ground had been a significant advantage that Mayfield was using to get the offense performing through the air, and the inability to get a run game going put the young quarterback into some precarious positions that he had not faced in a few weeks. Mayfield’s 397 passing yards were impressive, but his three critical interceptions helped us to almost spot-on call the final score of 29-13. Hey, I predicted 30-13, you can’t be 100 percent right about everything!

The slate for Week 14 looks like a bomb went off when you first glance at some of the lines, but I believe there are some great value plays when you dive a little deeper. Early numbers show that the public bettors will be on the Chiefs, Texans, Saints, Patriots, Rams, Giants, Broncos, Cowboys and Seahawks, and the sports books will need the opposite of these games on Sunday and Monday. In the spirit of the holiday season, this week’s article will feature three games I will be covering as the bet(s) of the week. We might be rowdy as all hell here at the Combine Sports and on Santa’s naughty list, but the good little girls and boys that read this article deserve a couple of extra stocking stuffers this year. Without further ado, let’s get into our plays of the week.

Denver Broncos (-5.0) versus the San Francisco 49ers (+5.0) O/U 45.5

Part of successful gambling is making sure you get the best of the number. You aren’t always going to be accurate in gauging movements but trying to either get ahead of a line or waiting for the line to drift in your favor is a vital part of showing profit long-term.

These articles come out towards the end of the week, so it’s not always possible for us to beat the numbers on here. That is one reason why I have been trying to utilize my Twitter account to update potential movements that are going to run away from us as the week goes on. At the time of writing this, there are still some +4.5 and +5’s available in the market, but that price is on the steady decline for a couple of reasons. Key losses to wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (Achilles) and cornerback Chris Harris (leg) have forced the Broncos to make adjustments to their game plan for Sunday’s contest, and these two injuries are potential game-changers for Denver on both sides of the ball.

San Francisco brings with them a 2-10 record, but they aren’t metrically as bad as their win/loss total appears to state. The 49ers have outgained opponents this year and grade out as a top-15 team in a lot of efficiency statistics. What that goes and shows is that the Niners are losing games this season because of turnover mistakes and not with their on-field play production.

Before the injury to Emmanuel Sanders, Denver was still an extremely one-dimensional unit, ranking second in the NFL in run offense and a lousy 20th in passing. With the loss of Sanders, the team loses a wide receiver that was seeing a 23.8 percent target share. The next highest target share belongs to rookie Courtland Sutton, who has seen a 14.3 percent target rate — followed by Demaryius Thomas at 13.8 percent — and he only played eight weeks for the Broncos before getting traded to the Houston Texans. Neither Sanders or Thomas are walking through that door on Sunday, and the team is going to be without nearly 40 percent of their targets on the year.

The idea here is that if the Broncos can’t throw the football on the road, they are going to become a predictable offense that is going to try and rely on two rookie running backs to get the job done. Phillip Lindsay has been spectacular on the season, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt, but he isn’t a bruising back that is going to be able to carry the ball 20 plus times. Royce Freeman, on the other hand, has been awful and is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry on almost 10 attempts per game in his past five contests.

When you start breaking down the 49ers from a statistical standpoint, they are quite impressive, at least when compared to their record. They allow only 46 percent of runs to be successful — ranking them 11th in the NFL and just 44 percent of passes — good for fifth best in the league. The Niners also rank 12th in explosive run plays allowed on defense, which should prevent some of the quick-hitters that Lindsay will be looking to execute on Sunday.

The 49ers are less equipped offensively, but they are not immune to a big play or two themselves, ranking fifth in explosive runs and sixth in explosive passes. Wide receiver Marquise Goodwin is projected to be active after missing the previous two weeks, and his big-play ability has the potential to break open the game versus a Denver defense that ranks 25th in the NFL in allowing explosive passes. Goodwin is averaging 19.9 yards per catch and might be able to bust loose from a Denver unit that will be susceptible to the deep ball without their best defender Chris Harris.

Rowdy Bold Prediction: San Francisco 24 – Denver 20

Recommended Bet: San Francisco (+5.0)

Indianapolis Colts (+5.0) versus the Houston Texans (-5.0) O/U 50.0

A week removed from our Houston Texans selection over the Cleveland Browns, we will go back to the drawing board again with a pick involving this team. I don’t want to sound like a broken record spitting out the same statistical data as I did last week with the Texans because not much has changed with their metrics, so I’ll try to avoid being redundant while still getting the point across.

A lot of the critical factors that we ignored with the Texans in Week 13 will be the same determinants of why I believe the Colts are live dogs to spring the upset on Sunday. Houston found themselves in a prime position against Cleveland of being a runaway freight train versus a rookie quarterback that was a deer in headlights against the vaunted Texans front four. And that is to take nothing away from Baker Mayfield, but it was an excellent spot for Houston to continue their winning ways against a young offense.

No matter how you want to shake it, the Texans are an overrated team that has overachieved so far this year. Nine wins in a row after starting 0-3 is impressive, but there’s still a lot to be concerned about going forward. Houston ranks just 21st in offensive efficiency and 30th in adjusted sack rate with their offensive line. And while Indianapolis isn’t going to be a team that will apply a ton of pressure to Deshaun Watson –and I think Watson can have some success in the game — the Colts grade out as the 11th most efficient defense in football and are inside the top-10 in limiting both explosive runs and passes.

It’s tough to make a convincing argument for the Colts after they were shut out for the first time in Andrew Luck’s career last week in Jacksonville, but if you break down some of the significant plays to that game, you realize that Indianapolis missed a handful of opportunities that would have completely altered the outcome. For starters, Luck threw an interception inside the Jaguars 20-yard line on the first drive of the game, and the team also missed two critical fourth down situations — one where they decided to punt from midfield instead of going for it on fourth and one, and the other involved Indy getting stopped on fourth and goal from the two-yard line. Those are critical plays that will swing a game away from you, especially if you are on the wrong side of all of these results.

Ironically, the Texans had a completely different experience on Sunday. Cleveland managed to average 8.2 yards per play against them but outside of the 13 points they scored, the team faltered during the five other possessions inside Houston territory, coming away with zero points during those drives. The same could even be said when the Texans were able to beat the Tennessee Titans 34-17 the week before that. Marcus Mariota completed 22-23 attempts, and the game swung when the Titans failed to convert on a 4th and 1 from the one-yard line, inexplicably giving the ball to their tight end instead of Derrick Henry.

Houston has faced the second easiest schedule on the season against opposing offenses, and Indianapolis won’t be the pushover that some of these teams have shown to be. The Colts rank second in adjusted sack rate with their offensive line and grade out inside the top-10 in both run and pass success rate. The Texans are rated 16th in defensive success rate against the pass, so Luck will have a chance to thrive against a questionable secondary.

The lookahead line for this game was Houston -3 last week, and there has been nothing to warrant this movement outside of last week’s results. Indianapolis is ranked ninth in the NFL with a 65.9 percent touchdown conversion rate inside the red zone as where the Texans come in at just 25th overall at 48.9 percent. Defensively, the numbers remain just about the same. The Colts prevent a touchdown 50 percent of the time — good for sixth best in the league, and the Texans are allowing a whopping 71 percent of drives to end in a score — ranking 27th overall. I believe that Houston sees their win streak come to an end this weekend at the hands of Andrew Luck.

Rowdy Bold Prediction: Indianapolis 31 – Houston 27

Recommended Bet: Indianapolis (+5.0)

Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) versus the Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) O/U 43.0

Our last bet of the day keeps us in the state of Texas for the Philadelphia Eagles taking on the Dallas Cowboys. These two teams met on November 11th in a game that saw the Cowboys steal a road victory 27-20. The contest only produced 26 points in the first three quarters but erupted for 21 points in the fourth quarter to eek past the total of 46.

The Eagles have provided a 1-6 over record this season at home, and the aforementioned first meeting was the only game of theirs that has gone over the total. However, Philadelphia has been a much different team on the road this season. Not counting the London game versus Jacksonville, the Eagles are 3-1 on overs and haven’t played in a game that has provided less than 47 points this year away from Lincoln Financial Field.

The Cowboys are the exact opposite of that trend. They are 1-5 on the road to the over this year, with the first meeting resulting in the only over they have played away from home. Nevertheless, though, Dallas games have gone over in four of the six matchups held inside their building. Both of those trends are a good sign towards the over on Sunday, but let’s dive a little deeper into the matchup to see if statistics agree with the results that have been yielded.

Sharp bettors have been ahead of the market when it comes to the Eagles secondary. Injuries have ravished the team, and if it wasn’t for Colt McCoy exiting Monday’s game and having Mark Sanchez replace him, we were looking at a potential shootout on our hands. We instead landed under the total because of an anemic performance by Washington, but Philadelphia could have provided a 40-point outburst of their own if they weren’t held to zero points on two separate occasions inside the Redskins five-yard line.

The most impressive improvement for the Eagles has been the play from Carson Wentz. The 25-year-old got off to a slow start this season after suffering a torn ACL towards the end of last year but is beginning to look like his usual self. Wentz has shown more willingness to move outside the pocket and push the ball down the field for big chunk plays, which would help to explain their sudden rise into the top-12 in offensive success rate in passing (12th) and rushing (11th).

Dallas has been experiencing a renaissance of their own here as of late. If we only look at the Cowboys since the acquisition of Amari Cooper, they have increased their passing success rate from 27th in the league to 13th. However, the perception around Dallas’ defense is going to be what drives people to the window to bet the under. The Cowboys have held teams to just 17.5 points per game in the past four contests, which includes keeping the Saints to only 10 points last Thursday.

But statistics don’t always tell the whole story. In the same four-week span, the Cowboys have graded out 21st in pass rate success defense and 25th in rush rate success defense, allowing 7.2 yards through the air per play and 4.4 yards on the ground. Sean Lee (hamstring) is on the wrong side of questionable for Sunday’s game, but his return would help the Cowboys defend the tight end position. Zach Ertz exploded with 14 catches for 145 yards and two touchdowns in their first meeting and will be a difficult matchup for the Cowboys to defend if Lee isn’t active. Dallas currently allows the sixth most receptions to tight ends this year.

For all intents and purposes, this is an elimination game in the NFC that should allow both teams to play with urgency and aggressiveness. Wentz is going to have to be aggressive to keep this game competitive, and the Cowboys should be able to do just about anything they want when they have the ball. I am not a huge over bettor historically but am very encouraged by the way this game sets up for points to hit the board. I would anticipate this number creeping up as the week goes on and wouldn’t wait long to get my wager placed.

Rowdy Bold Prediction: Dallas 27 – Philadelphia 24

Recommended Bet: Over 43 Points

 

 

 

 

 

NFL Week 13 Bet of the Week

Spencer Aguiar digs into his top rowdy bet for Week 13 of the NFL season

With Week 12 of the NFL season in the books, we will start planning our attack into Week 13. But before we dive headfirst into the card, let’s do a quick recap of last weekend’s top selection.

The Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers under 47 points got us to the window on Sunday. There were ebbs and flows throughout the game, but Ben Roethlisberger’s interception with 1:07 left in the fourth quarter sealed the Broncos 24-17 victory. It would be naive to say that we weren’t on the receiving end of a little luck with Roethlisberger’s late-game mistake. But I do think the fake field goal for a touchdown at the end of the first half by Pittsburgh and the 97-yard touchdown to start the second half from Roethlisberger to JuJu Smith-Schuster put us in that precarious position to begin with and forced us to survive. However, a win is a win, and we will try to take that momentum with us into the betting card for Week 13.

The slate this week isn’t one of my favorites I have ever seen, and in reality, it makes me thankful that I am on the handicapping side and not the bookmaking front. Sportsbooks are going to have some massive liabilities on their hands. The Colts, Panthers, Broncos, Rams, Chiefs, Falcons, Patriots and Chargers are all being bet heavily by the public and will turn into significant decisions for the books.

Professional handicappers will most likely end up on the opposite end of those teams at the right number, but the two that catch my attention would be the Detroit Lions (+10) over the Los Angeles Rams and the Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) over the Los Angeles Chargers. Jim Bob Cooter hasn’t done a great job as the Lions offensive coordinator, but the Rams can’t stop anyone right now defensively, and the number is overinflated based off of the Rams-Chiefs game from two weeks ago. Most places are taking in between 80-90 percent of their wagers on Los Angeles, so there is a chance we could see this number drift to 10.5. I am just playing the waiting game right now and will bet it if I can get a +10.5.

As far as the Steelers (-3) over the Chargers is concerned, the lookahead line for this game had Pittsburgh at -4.5, and I think we are seeing an overreaction to the market because of Pittsburgh’s road loss last week. The public being on a road dog usually doesn’t end well for them, and it is even more worrisome with Chargers running back Melvin Gordon ruled out with an MCL sprain. The Chargers are the number one team in the NFL in explosive run plays, and the loss of Gordon isn’t adequately accounted for in my opinion. I am pausing on placing a wager at this moment and will be trying to grab a -3 with cleaner vig attached to it.

Cleveland Browns (+4.5) versus the Houston Texans (-4.5) O/U 47.5

The Houston Texans (-4.5) versus Cleveland Browns (+4.5) has seen some interesting movement since the number was posted. The Texans started as a 4.5-point favorite and quickly got bet up to -6.5. However, that number has been taken back down to -4.5 at some books at the time of writing this article and -5 at other places.

I think this game presents a compelling case of sharp gamblers being on different sides of the aisle on this one. For starters, I want to preface this by saying that movement on a wager does not mean sharp action. Lines can move from a plethora of different conditions. Smart money coming in is one of them, but it is far from the only thing that will drive a line.

There are a couple of reasons I believe different credible parties have taken this number. While Houston is getting nearly 60% of the wagers, the bet slips have been somewhat steady across the week. That usually can let us discount public action as being an option of why the line is moving. The second opinion is that the game has seen sudden and sharp movements when it has shifted between numbers. The books moved the price quickly from -4.5 to -6.5 and then proceeded to almost immediately get off of +6.5 once it got there. That is almost surely the result of one of two things. Either one group steamed the number up to where they wanted it to be and then took the Browns, or what I think is most likely based off a handful of reasons; some sharp bettors quickly grabbed Houston at -4.5 and once it reached +6.5 for Cleveland, another group found value in the number and shot it back down.

And in reality, it would make sense to see “wiseguys” conflicted on this game. The Texans have an eight-game win streak but have probably been an overrated team mathematically during that stretch, and the sharp bettors have been ahead of the market on Cleveland’s rise from the ashes, but at what point is the value gone in betting them?

The number is currently stuck in the dead zone right now, which is probably a better sign for people who have grabbed Cleveland at +6.5 than the ones who have the Texans at -4.5. The reason I say this is that most of the times when a number doesn’t instantly jump up to seven points when it is in this range, it most likely will trend down for the rest of the week. That is not always the case, but once we have dipped down past -6, the next key number to land directly on would be -4. There is some minimal value in -5, but the range of 4.5-5.5 doesn’t make a massive difference usually. With the number drifting down, I don’t see why it would change unless wiseguys jump in late on Houston.

So all that information puts us in a position that we need to try and figure out what side is the right side based on statistical data. The Texans are an exceptional defensive unit, ranking fourth in defensive efficiency and second in run defense but have struggled offensively, ranking 21st in offensive efficiency and 28th in rushing offense. A portion of those offensive numbers can be attributed to early-season struggles based on quarterback Deshaun Watson starting the year still wary of the ACL injury that he suffered last season, but a predictable play-calling pattern from head coach Bill O’Brien caused his young QB to be pressured on 43.2 percent of dropbacks.

The combination of Watson getting pressured and being afraid to scramble out of the pocket prompted the Texans to go winless in their first three games. O’Brien was eventually smart enough to realize that running back Lamar Miller needed to be infiltrated into the offensive schemes and made a more concerted effort of getting the 27-year-old the ball. But it is not just the willingness to get Miller involved that has helped; it is also the formations that the Texans have been calling to disguise run or pass. Forty-two percent of their plays are run out of a “12” personnel grouping, which means one running back, two tight ends and two wide receivers. This eliminates the classic three wide receiver sets that most teams run and keeps them more balanced and less predictable.

O’Brien has also used Miller as a wild-card in other situations. He has lined up the running back in the slot or out wide on 11 percent of his snaps. That isn’t at the frequency of the Saints with Alvin Kamara (24.7 percent) or James White of the Patriots (20 percent), but it’s right around the same territory of what the Rams do with Todd Gurley (12.4 percent). These misdirections and bulkier packages have enabled Watson to be hit only 14 times in his last five games. A cleaner pocket will allow any quarterback to have success and Watson getting healthier mixed with the ability to dissect plays before being bombarded by the defense has allowed the Texans to outproduce whatever their current metrics are saying.

Now let’s look at the Browns, who are experiencing a renaissance of their own. Since Cleveland fired head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley, Baker Mayfield has thrown nine touchdowns with only one interception, completing 68 percent of his passes, and running back Nick Chubb has averaged 115 yards in those three contests with one score. But the most impressive part of their current run is that the offensive line has not allowed a sack in 125 consecutive snaps and Mayfield has only been hit twice in November.

While all those statistics are impressive and I do think Cleveland is trending towards becoming the real deal, we do need to look at the past three units that the Browns have faced. You can’t discredit performances against a weak defense, but Cleveland has been able to exploit the Chiefs, Falcons and Bengals in those matchups. And once again, this is to take nothing away from them because you can only beat who is in front of you, but when you look at the main thing each of those teams struggles to maintain, it is opposing running backs. All three units rank in the bottom four when it comes to defending the run, and Cleveland has been using their run game to open up Mayfield through the air.

The Texans only allow 42 percent of run plays to grade out successfully, which is the fourth best percentage in the NFL, and they are also second in the league when it comes to preventing explosive runs or passes. I think a couple of critical factors can be taken away from those statistics. Most notably is that Cleveland will need to gameplan differently for the game on Sunday. It doesn’t look like they will be able to rely on the run early and that is going to force Mayfield to have to make throws right from the start of the game.

It doesn’t mean that the 23-year-old won’t be able to make the passes, but without the ability to execute explosive plays, he is going to have to hit them over and over again if the run game doesn’t show up. Cleveland grades out dead last in the NFL in power success, which is essentially the ability to convert on third and short or fourth and short with a run.

Mayfield is well on his way to becoming the Browns first QB they can trust since 1995. And it is possible he continues to roll, but I am in the camp that I want to see a rookie quarterback and rookie running back go on the road and do it against a top-five defense before I ignore the fact that the Browns just picked up their first road win in three years last week. The Texans defense ranks seventh in adjusted sack rate, and I think Mayfield could find himself in a different position this week of scrambling around and forcing throws.

With the number trending down, I am in no rush to make the wager until I think it has reached its floor. Part of gambling is making sure you get the best numbers you can and not forcing bets in if the time isn’t ready yet. If you can grab a -4.5 with clean vig, I am ok with putting it in now. But if you don’t have that number, I would wait and keep an eye on the market. However, it is essential to get it in before it reaches -6 if it does end up going back up. That is where the first extremely key number comes into play.

Rowdy Bold Prediction: Houston 30 – Cleveland 13

Recommended Bet: Houston (-4.5)