FanDuel NBA DFS 1/15/19 Value Plays

@TheCombineJosh give his best value plays for the day

There are six games on the NBA DFS slate for Tuesday, January 15th and here are The Combine Presidente’s value picks for the day.  I typically play one lineup per night on FanDuel for fun and you can check my lineup from last night at the bottom of the article.  Follow The Combine Sports and @TheCombineJosh on Twitter for updated information.

Games:

Thunder @ Hawks (OKC -8.5, O/U 234.5)

Suns @ Pacers (IND -10.5, O/U 219)

Timberwolves @ 76ers (PHI -6.5, O/U 230.5)

Heat @ Bucks (MIL -8.5, O/U 217.5)

Warriors @ Nuggets (EVEN, O/U 228)

Bulls @ Lakers (LAL -7, O/U 214.5)

 

Value Plays:

PG Cory Joseph ($3900)

  • In a game that should be a blowout, Joseph could see some extra minutes and provide some cheap points, allowing you to spend big on the top guys tonight.

SG Dennis Schroder ($5300)

  • Schroder is coming back to Atlanta with a chip on his shoulder, the game has the highest O/U, and he will likely see extra time once the Thunder begin blowing out Atlanta and Westbrook hits the bench. All that equals up to a huge value for Schroder tonight.

SF Bojan Bogdanovic ($5200)

  • Similar to the Joseph situation, Bogdanovic could put up some solid numbers across the board against a weak PHO team.

PF Omari Spellman ($3500)

  • This is contingent on Collins missing the game for the Hawks, but may pencil him in anyway due to the minimum salary and being able to drop the lowest score. This big man can knock down some 3s and saw nearly 30 minutes Sunday.

C Steven Adams ($7300)

  • An expensive “Value”, but him being the 5th most expensive C on the day provides some value. If John Collins misses the game for the Hawks, Adams could easily grab 20 rebounds tonight. Add in a few pick’n’rolls and putbacks and I can see a 20/20 game for the big man.

 

Presidente’s Lock of the Night:

SG Dennis Schroder ($5300)

 

Previous Night:

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Week 14 TNF NFL DFS Picks: Jaguars – Titans Preview

JB reviews Week 14’s TNF match-up between Tennessee and Jacksonville, giving his top DFS Picks and recommended bets.

Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota, TEN vs JAX (FD – $16,000, DK – $10,400/15,600*CPT)

Any offensive player in this match-up carries significant risk, made evident by the tiny O/U from Vegas. Mariota is no exception against this Jaguars defense that has allowed the third fewest Passing Yards and tied for the first fewest Passing TD this season. However, over their last five games opposing QB have scored 20.38 FPPG. One of the contributing factors has been via the ground. For the season JAX has given up the most Rushing Yards and Rushing TD to the QB position. Mariota has 10 rushing attempts twice this season, and took off seven times the last time these teams faced. He has scored at least 22 FP in four of his last five, with 2 TD in each of those four games. Despite the stinginess of the Jags, they rank in the bottom half of the league in INT and Sacks, which means I’m going with Mariota tonight and hoping his legs can keep the chains moving.

Cody Kessler, JAX @ TEN (FD – $13,500, DK – $9,000/13,500*CPT)

On the other side of the field, the Titans defense ranks directly behind Jacksonville in both fewest Passing Yards and fewest Passing TD allowed this season. While they too rank in the bottom half in INT and Sacks, there’s no way Cody Kessler travels on a short week and puts up useful fantasy numbers tonight. Last week in his first start of the season he scored 8.8 FP, throwing for 150 yards with a fumble. I find his price tags quite offensive.

 

Running Backs

Dion Lewis, TEN vs JAX (FD – $11,000, DK – $7,400/11,100*CPT)   

Derrick Henry, TEN vs JAX (FD – $12,000, DK – $7,000/10,500*CPT)

The Titans backfield has almost become a complete 50/50 split, and recently Henry has been the beneficiary due to scoring four TD in his last five games. Lewis on the other hand hasn’t seen double digit FP since Week 9 against Dallas, and that was largely in part to catching four passes for 60 yards and a score. This is why I prefer Lewis over Henry tonight. Because like Dallas, Jacksonville’s defense has been fantastic against the run, allowing the third fewest FPPG to RB this season and just 5.9 FPPG to RB1 in their last five games. RB2 like Wendell Smallwood and Nyheim Hines found success via the air against this Defense, and I think Lewis has the potential to scrape out value if he can turn one of those screens into 6 points.

Leonard Fournette, JAX @ TEN (FD – $17,000, DK – $12,000/18,000*CPT)

T.J. Yeldon, JAX @ TEN (FD – $8,500, DK – $6,400/9,600*CPT)

The one guy I have no concerns about tonight, aside from a possible ejection. That is because a healthy Fournette is match-up proof. He has scored over 21 FP in three straight contests, with four TD over that span. You best believe Kessler’s number one objective tonight is to hand the rock to this guy, especially with how Tennessee’s defense has handled RB1’s recently. The Titans are allowing 13.74 FPPG to RB1 over their last five, but that’s with the complete shutdown of New England in Week 10. Isaiah Crowell, Lamar Miller, Marlon Mack, and of course Ezekiel Elliott all enjoyed double digit outings in their match-ups with this defense. Yeldon on the other hand presents a sneaky value opportunity despite the return of Fournette.  Kessler checked down to Yeldon eight times last week, and even if that number decreases slightly with Fournette in during early-downs, Yeldon still has a legitimate shot at being the teams leading receiver.

 

Wide Receivers

Corey Davis, TEN vs JAX (FD – $14,000, DK – $8,400/12,600*CPT)

Tajae Sharpe, TEN vs JAX (FD – $10,000, DK – $4,600/6,900*CPT)

I think this may be the first game that I want to fade every wide receiver from both sides. Jacksonville allowed the fewest Receiving TD to WR this season, along with the fourth lowest FPPG. Over the last five games, they are allowing just 10.06 FPPG to WR1, with Antonio Brown being the only one to top 20 FP. The match-up is tough to say the least. Davis has scored 20+ FP in two of his last five games, scoring three times in the span while averaging 7 targets per game. The kid is good, but he’s not Antonio Brown quite yet, which means those lofty prices only leave room for disappointment from his fantasy owners tonight against Jalen Ramsey. Sharpe has been the clear #2 choice for Mariota recently, averaging 5.2 targets per game over the last five, and scoring double digit FP twice. The other three games on the other hand, were goose eggs. The DraftKings price makes him a very intriguing dart throw, but neither are recommended tonight.

Donte Moncrief, JAX @ TEN (FD – $7,000, DK – $5,600/8,400*CPT)                           

Dede Westbrook, JAX @ TEN (FD – $8,000, DK – $6,800/10,200*CPT)

The Titans are no cakewalk for WR either, but have surrendered 25.6 FPPG to WR this season. Over their last five games they are allowing 13.64 FPPG to WR1, getting torched by T.Y. Hilton in Week 11. So this secondary is definitely beatable…..by Andrew Luck. The prices are all great for this WR corps, but how can you trust them with Cody Kessler at the helm? You cannot.

 

Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith, TEN vs JAX (FD – $9,000, DK – $5,000/7,500*CPT) 

Anthony Firkser, TEN vs JAX (FD – $8,000, DK – $4,000/6,000*CPT)

I feel like its going to be a TE kind of a game for the Titans tonight. Jacksonville is tied for the 5th most TD allowed to the TE position this season, thanks to Eric Ebron mostly, and are allowing 8.5 FPPG this season. Jonnu has only seen over three targets once all season, but has been very efficient lately, scoring three TD in his last five contests. Firkser has emerged as a viable option in this offense, as Mariota has yet to miss a connection with him albeit there have only been 13 so far. He has averaged over ten yards per catch this season, has three straight games over 40 yards, and scored his first TD last week against the Jets. The production is trending upward, and since the Colts were able to do it with Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron three weeks ago – why not go double TE tonight? Someone has to score for the Titans tonight, and I think its both of these guys.

 

Defenses

Jaguars @ TEN (DK – $5,800/8,700*CPT)

Titans vs JAX (DK – $6,000/9,000*CPT)

Despite this game having the lowest O/U of the week, and featuring Cody Kessler, I’m not that excited about playing either DST on DraftKings tonight. Both defenses have less than 10 INT and 30 Sacks on the season. I don’t see either team being forced to throw at any point, or the Jags wanting the ball out of Fournette’s hands. There will be plenty of punts, and the low scores create a nice comfy floor for both DSTs, but surprisingly I don’t think the ceilings are as high as we want.

 

Kickers

Ryan Succop, TEN vs JAX (FD – $9,500, DK – $3,600/5,100*CPT)

Josh Lambo, JAX @ TEN (FD – $9,000, DK – $3,400/5,100*CPT)

I love kickers. Keep them in fantasy forever. I especially love the spot Josh Lambo will be in tonight. The Titans defense boasts the leagues best Red Zone TD%. When you combine this with Cody Kessler as the opposing QB, you get a very busy Lambo. He has scored double digit FP in 3 of his last five games, and the fact that he costs less than Succop on both sites is the cherry on top.

 

Lineup Examples

You got to get weird sometimes on Single Game slates, and Same-team RBs, Same-team TEs, and a K is as weird as you can get.

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Picks Against the Spread

(Titans (-5.0) vs Jaguars: O/U 37.5)

Final Score Prediction: Titans 20, Jaguars 13

Bets: Titans (-5.0), Under 37.5

 

*Photo by Chipermc

Week 13 MNF NFL DFS Picks: Redskins – Eagles Preview

JB reviews Week 13’s MNF match-up between Philadelphia and Washington, giving his top DFS Picks and recommended bets.

Quarterbacks

Colt McCoy, WAS @ PHI (FD – $14,000, DK – $8,800/13,200-MVP)

He’s from Texas, his name is Colt, and he ain’t afraid to sling it. My FanDuel MVP (1.5x Points) tonight, McCoy faces a depleted Eagles secondary allowing 22.1 FPPG to opposing QBs over their last 5 games. For the season they’ve allowed the 5th most Passing Yards, and have the 5th fewest INT. McCoy put up a respectable 18.92 FP in his first full game in place of injured Alex Smith, and I expect him to put up similar numbers tonight.

Carson Wentz, PHI vs WAS (FD – $16,000, DK – $10,600/15,900-MVP)

While the match-up isn’t quite as enticing as facing his own secondary, Wentz is also in a nice position tonight. The Redskins are allowing 19.97 FPPG over their last 5 games. They rank 6th in the league in INT this season however, and Wentz has scored under 15 FP two weeks in a row, which is why I prefer McCoy straight up. But with the trends of both these defenses, I prefer to get both the signal callers in my lineups tonight.

 

Running Backs

Adrian Peterson, WAS @ PHI (FD – $12,500, DK – $7,400/11,100-MVP)   

Chris Thompson, WAS @ PHI (FD – $8,000, DK – $4,400/6,600-MVP)

The RB position is a tough one tonight. In Washington AP is still banged up/”questionable” and has scored single digit FP in 3 of his last 4, while Chris Thompson is returning from his 4 game absence and should be well rested. Even if AP plays against a defense allowing the 5th highest Yards per Carry, I would assume he splits snaps fairly evenly with Thompson. I am definitely intrigued by the latter due to Philly allowing the 5th most Receptions to the RB position this season. With Jordan Reed drawing extra attention due to his recent success, I see McCoy and Thompson hooking up a lot to keep the chains moving. That is why Thompson, despite the risk, is my DraftKings (PPR) MVP tonight (1.5x Points).

Josh Adams, PHI vs WAS (FD – $13,500, DK – $8,000/12,000-MVP)

Like AP, Adams is also banged up and carries a questionable tag heading into tonight, but is also expected to play. After getting 22 carries last week, I see the snap split in PHI being a lot more lopsided than WAS, and Adams will face a defense allowing 17.58 FPPG to RB1 over their last 5. Unfortunately PHI isn’t getting their backs involved in the passing game, which limits the upside here. Regardless, Adams has two double digit FP performances in a row so he’s a safe pick tonight.

 

Wide Receivers

Josh Doctson, WAS @ PHI (FD – $10,000, DK – $6,800/10,200-MVP)

Like Thompson, I am greatly interested in Josh Doctson due to McCoy’s willingness to sling the ball around, and the Eagles willingness to allow it. They have allowed the 3rd most Receptions and 2nd most Yards to WR this season, and a whopping 18.98 FPPG to WR1 over their last 5 games. In McCoy’s first start last week, Doctson drew 10 targets, catching 6 for 66 yards. It was his first game this season with over 5 Receptions. There is of course risk involved here, as Jamison Crowder could make a return tonight. I’m hoping WAS gives him one more week to recover and rolling with Doctson on both sites.

Alshon Jeffery, PHI vs WAS (FD – $10,000, DK – $8,600/12,900-MVP)                           

Golden Tate, PHI vs WAS (FD – $9,500, DK – $7,800/10,800-MVP)

The Redskins secondary also presents a nice opportunity for the Eagles WR corps to get back on track tonight as they’ve allowed the 3rd most Receiving Yards to WR, but which one gets the most looks? Alshon Jeffery has faded since the acquisition of Golden Tate, averaging just 5.3 targets per game. Tate has been a little more involved averaging 6.6 targets but has been just as ineffective failing to top 50 yards or score. Considering the recent success of WR1 against WAS (12.26 FPPG last 5), I’m going with Jeffery over Tate tonight, as I see Wentz leaning on his top guy when Zach Ertz is bottled up (see below).

 

Tight Ends

Jordan Reed, WAS @ PHI (FD – $11,500, DK – $8,200/12,300-MVP) 

What a weird spot. Essentially the two best offensive players on both teams are Tight Ends and I don’t want to play either of them tonight. The Eagles are allowing just 5.9 FPPG to TE1 over their last 5 games, and the fourth fewest FPPG this season. Jordan Reed has been hot lately, with 19 targets, 146 yards and a TD over his last two contests. But for these prices I find it hard for him to return value in a tough match-up tonight.

Zach Ertz, PHI vs WAS (FD – $14,500, DK – $11,200/16,800-MVP)

Ditto ^. The Redskins have allowed just 5.5 FPPG to TE1 over their last 5, and the 6th fewest FPPG this season. Despite getting shut down by the Saints, Ertz has scored double digits FP in 8 of his 11 games this season. He even went 10/112 against the Titans who are #1 against TE in fantasy currently. Ertz has a much better chance at overcoming the match-up tonight, but it’s a hard pass for me with those lofty prices.

 

Defenses

I’m not a fan of the floor from either side tonight. But if you were to take a flyer on rostering a DST tonight I wouldn’t argue…too much. Eagles O-Line has allowed the 11th most sacks this season and on the other side Colt McCoy committed 4 turnovers last week. The upside is there, but I’m not interested.

 

Kickers

Dustin Hopkins, WAS @ PHI (FD – $9,000, DK – $3,200/4,800)

Jake Elliott, PHI vs WAS (FD – $9,500, DK – $3,400/5,100-MVP)

WAS is allowing 7.2 FPPG to K over the last 5 games, and PHI is allowing 8.8. I can see a backup QB struggling to score in the redzone, especially when his go-to TE is struggling to get open – so Hopkins interests me slightly. Both Kickers are an easy pass on FanDuel, but the salary relief on DraftKings could make it possible to roster the stud TEs if you are a believer tonight. Obviously I am not, therefore I did not need the salary relief.

 

Lineup Examples

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Picks Against the Spread

(Eagles (-6.0) vs Redskins: O/U 45.5)

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Redskins 20

Bets: Eagles (-6.0), Over 45.5

 

*Photo by Keith Allison

Week 13 NFL DFS Picks

JB gives his top NFL DFS picks for Week 13

Quarterback

Jameis Winston, TB vs CAR (FD – $7,500, DK – $6,000)

Underdogs at home, in the second highest O/U on the slate, against Divisional rivals. I love the spot for Winston this week. Carolina has allowed the fourth most Pass TD this season, along with 20.0 FPPG to opposing QBs. Coming off a 312 Yards, 2 TD performance in a comfortable win over San Fran, Winston is going to have to throw a ton to beat the Panthers. Week 13 POTW ceiling… replaced by FitzMagic at halftime floor.

Jared Goff, LAR @ DET (FD – $8,400, DK – $6,400)

Goff is my safest pick at QB this week, simply because I see the Lions hanging around longer than the Raiders will with Mahomes – plus the Lions Rush D since the trade for Snacks Harrison has been very solid. The Detroit secondary on the other hand is quite disturbing as a Lions fan. They are allowing the fifth highest Comp%, second highest QBR, and have the third fewest INTs this season. Goff has scored over 20 FP in four straight contests, two going for over 30. The Rams are 10 point favorites in the highest O/U on the slate, and won’t have to worry about the weather.

 

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey, CAR @ TB (FD – $8,800, DK – $8,800)

CMC is coming off a massive 41 FP performance against SEA in a back and forth nail-biter that should resemble this weeks showdown with the Bucs. The Bucs have allowed the fourth most Rush TD this season, and 23.3 FPPG to opposing RBs. Four weeks ago McCaffrey rushed for 79 yards and 2 scores against TB, adding 5 Rec for an additional 78 yards. As the heart of the offense for any down or situation at this point, CMC is my lock-in stud for all my lineups this week.

Phillip Lindsay, DEN @ CIN (FD – $7,000, DK – $5,400)

I’m going Lindsay here with my #2 simply because of the value. You almost can’t fade him at this price facing the Bengals. I honestly think Aaron Jones has the better upside against the Cardinals in the Wisconsin weather, but the $1,300 difference on DK is too much. Cincy has allowed the second most Rush yards, and third most Rush TD this season. Andy Dalton is out, and Jeff Driskel will be heavily pressured all game. The Broncos should be riding Lindsay into the ground by the start of the second half. He’s scored over 15 FP in four of his last five contests, and there’s no reason to doubt that he’ll make it 5/6 today.

Honorable Mention: Spencer Ware, KC @ Raiders (FD – $5,200, DK – $4,000), Aaron Jones, GB vs ARI (FD – $7,600, DK – $6,700)

 

Wide Receiver

Kenny Golladay, DET vs LAR (FD – $7,300, DK – $6,700)

As previously stated, this game has the highest predicted score on the slate, and the Lions per usual are underdogs. This should lead to plenty of catch-up work for Matthew Stafford and his one-man WR corps. The Rams are tied for the second most Pass TD allowed this season, along with the third highest Yards per Catch. This bodes well for the ball-hawk out of Northern Illinois. He has posted three straight double digit fantasy scores, averaging 12 targets per game over that span. Marcus Peters is not going to enjoy the film sessions after this game.

Robert Woods, LAR @ DET (FD – $7,300, DK – $6,900)

My favorite DFS strategy is auto-selecting WR2-3 from offenses playing against Detroit. Teez Tabor and Nevin Lawson have been atrocious in coverage this year, and that’s not going to stop against a stud that has scored double digit FP in 9 of 11 games this season and is coming off an 11 target game. The Lions are allowing 25.9 FPPG to WRs, and if Slay shadows Cooks as he usually does with WR1s, Woods is going to be a busy man.

Honorable Mentions: Adam Humphries, TB vs CAR (FD – $6,000, DK – $4,200)

 

Tight End

David Njoku, CLE @ HOU (FD – $5,500, DK – $4,300)

It feels like Week 13 has more enticing TE options than any other week this season. Despite going with one of the guys in the CAR-TB game, I’m going with the guy I think has the highest ceiling of the group. Houston allowed three straight opposing TEs to score. Jonnu Smith went for 2/63/1, Jordan Reed 7/71/1, and Jeff freaking Heuerman 10/83/1. Combine this with the fact that Houston has been very good against opposing WR over their last five games, means Baker is going to need Njoku to keep up with Watson today.

Cameron Brate, TB vs CAR (FD – $4,900, DK – $3,700)

I don’t think I need to justify TEs facing Carolina anymore. Cameron Brate literally has better odds at scoring a TD than the coin flip landing on heads.

Honorable Mentions: Greg Olsen, CAR @ TB (FD – $6,000, DK – $4,100)

 

Defense

Chicago Bears @ NYG (FD – $4,800, DK – $3,300)

I am more intrigued by using one of the match-up based values at DST this week like the Packers below, Broncos versus Driskel, or the Chiefs versus Gruden’s Raiders. But I continually found myself with the money to spend, and the lack of guts to not start the Bears. They have easily scored the most FPPG of any DST this season, only scoring single digits in one game. They lead the league in INT, and are seventh in sacks. They square off with Eli Manning in what forecasts to be a damp game at MetLife. It’s fool-proof.

Green Bay Packers vs ARI (FD – $4,400, DK – $2,800)

If you don’t happen to have the available dough to play the Bears, or have more strength than me to fade the best DST in the league, the Packers are your best bet. The forecast calls for 21 mph winds at Lambeau with a nice, welcoming snow/rain mix. That should be fun for a rookie QB who plays his home games in a comfy dome in Arizona and graduated from UCLA. The Pack have the fourth most sacks in the league and Rosen (11 INT) will be forced to drop back a whole lot as a 14 point underdog.

 

Sample Lineups

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*Photo by Keith Allison

Week 13 TNF NFL DFS Picks: Saints – Cowboys Preview

JB gives his top NFL DFS picks and his picks ATS for Week 13’s TNF match-up between the Saints and Cowboys

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees, NO @ DAL (FD – $17,000, DK – $10,600/15,900-MVP)

Brees has been on fire over the past four weeks, albeit against the Falcons, Bengals, Eagles, and Rams secondaries. The two games before this stretch started he put up 7 and 16 FP against the Vikings and Ravens, respectively. The Dallas Cowboys pose another tough test for the veteran. They have allowed 16.09 FPPG over their last five contests, and boast the seventh highest Sack% and 6th best Pass TD% this season. The highest FP total from a QB they’ve allowed recently was Carson Wentz in the Zach Ertz monster game (we’ll talk TEs later) and that was just 21.4 points. The secondary has done a great job at limiting big plays, and the D-Line has played great, both of which I believe limit the ceiling of Brees tonight. I don’t want anything to do with Brees on FanDuel with the 17K price tag, but am willing to FLEX him on DraftKings at a very reasonable price.

Dak Prescott, DAL vs NO (FD – $15,500, DK – $9,000/13,500-MVP)

The Saints have shown improvement against QBs recently, allowing just 16.28 FPPG opposed to 22.0 on the season. However, two of the last five included 3 and 8 point duds from Carson Wentz and Andy Dalton. The other three all scored over 21 FP. Dak has scored over 20 FP in four of his last six, impressively scoring rushing TD in five of those contests. I don’t mind the price tag on FanDuel considering the ceiling against this secondary, but will probably fade both signal callers on that site to be able to play both stud RB. But on DraftKings, Prescott is my top choice for the MVP (1.5x Points) slot.

 

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs NO (FD – $16,500, DK – $11,200/16,800-MVP)

Both of these defenses have been suffocating against the ground game. New Orleans is allowing the 2nd lowest Yards per Carry (3.6) and the lowest Rushing Yards per game this season. Over the last five games, RB1 have scored 13.78 FPPG (0.5 PPR). Todd Gurley scored just 16.9 in a shootout. Zeke on the other hand has scored 22,29, and 33 FP in his last three, but against some soft rush defenses in Washington, Atlanta, and Philadelphia. But the thing I like most is Zeke’s continued involvement in the pass game as he saw 6, 8, and 7 targets, respectively. I see him getting right at 10 tonight as the ground game is unable to get rolling and the Cowboys have to play a little second half catch/keep up, and he undoubtedly finds pay dirt tonight. He’s the safest bet for points on either side of the ball tonight due to his role in the Dallas offense, and for that reason I have him slotted in the MVP (1.5x Points) slot on FanDuel.

Alvin Kamara, NO @ DAL (FD – $14,500, DK – $11,800/17,700-MVP)

As good as the Saints have been against RB lately, the Cowboys have been slightly better. Over their last five games they are allowing just 10.3 FPPG (0.5 PPR) to RB1. The only back to crack 20 FP over that stretch was Dion Lewis, who managed just 62 yards on the ground, but went 4/60/1 receiving. This is exactly why I love Alvin Kamara tonight, well ahead of teammate Mark Ingram. Dallas has allowed the third lowest Yards per Carry (3.7) and fourth lowest Rushing Yards per game this season. I don’t see Mark Ingram getting anything going tonight. Kamara has been fading over the last three weeks, losing exactly seven FP each week. But when you consider how awful Atlanta and Philadelphia have been against the run, its not surprising the Saints didn’t rely on Kamara like they did against the Rams or the Vikings. Like Zeke, Kamara should see plenty of work in the pass game today, creating a very nice fantasy floor. But the fact that he will still split snaps with Ingram puts him behind Zeke tonight. He’s a shoo-in on FanDuel, but a tough fade for me on DraftKings at 11,800.

 

Wide Receivers

Amari Cooper, DAL vs NO (FD – $12,500, DK – $8,200/12,300-MVP)

Cole Beasley, DAL vs NO (FD – $8,500, DK – $4,000/6,000-MVP)

This is where we make our money tonight. Cooper and Beasley are locks on both sites facing a secondary that has been thrashed all season. The Saints are allowing 15.36 FPPG (0.5 PPR) to WR1 and 15.95 out of the slot over their last five games. For the season, they have allowed 30.5 to opposing WR corps. Julio Jones, Brandin Cooks, and Stefon Diggs all scored over 20, and Amari Cooper is coming off a monster 34 FP performance on Thanksgiving – averaging 8 targets per game since being acquired by the Cowboys. Beasley on the other hand has just two double-digit performances all year, but I’ll gladly take his route running over P.J. Williams coverage ability tonight. Calvin Ridley, Cooper Kupp, and Adam Thielen all feasted against the Saints from the slot, plus Beasley is dirt cheap and acts as a low risk-high reward salary relief. The duo is far from Jones/Ridley, Diggs/Thielen, or Cooks/Kupp, but on a one game slate – that dog will hunt.

Michael Thomas, NO @ DAL (FD – $14,000, DK – $11,600/17,400-MVP)

Tre’Quan Smith, NO @ DAL (FD – $10,500, DK – $6,800/10,200-MVP)

As I previously stated, the Cowboys have been fantastic at limiting damage via the air. Byron Jones has played great after his transition to CB, and Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis are holding their own with over-the-top help from Jeff Heath and Xavier Woods. Collectively they are allowing the 5th highest Cmp% in the league this season, but also the seventh lowest Yards per Catch. As I said, limiting the damage. Over the last five games they have allowed just 10.3 FPPG (0.5 PPR) to WR1 and 6.26 to WR2. Over that stretch only Julio Jones has bested 20 FP. Over the entire season they are only allowing 19.1 FPPG to opposing WR corps. Thanks to the difficulty in beating this secondary deep, and me still not fully trusting his role in this offense on a week-to-week basis, I am fading Tre’Quan Smith on both sites. I can see MT catching a ton of short/intermediate passes today, but think in the end the price tags won’t be worth the production.

 

Tight Ends

Dan Arnold, NO @ DAL (FD – $7,500, DK – $1,800/2,700-MVP) 

Ben Watson, NO @ DAL (FD – $7,000, DK – $2,600/3,900-MVP)

I’m not touching any Dallas TEs tonight, nor for the rest of the season for that matter. 1. They aren’t good, and 2. New Orleans has been shutting down opposing TEs all season. But I do love the position the Saints TEs are in tonight, especially the Dan Arnold. His questionable tag has been removed, and he will look to build upon his breakout performance last week against Atlanta. Dallas is allowing 12.86 FPPG (0.5 PPR) to TE1 over the last five games, and both Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis scored double digits on Thanksgiving. Jaylen Smith and Lander Vander Esch are playing at a high level right now, but are still young and inexperienced and can be beat in coverage by an athletic TE. Zach Ertz dropped 33.5 FP on them in Week 10. This is where I see Dan Arnold taking advantage tonight, as the former WR has plenty of athleticism. Drew Brees loves his freaky athletic TEs, playing with both Jimmy Graham and Antonio Gates in his career, but he also loves to F with our minds and throw to the one guy you weren’t thinking about on the goal line. Which is why I don’t even mind taking a flyer on old-man Ben Watson tonight. Bottom line: Brees is tossing at least one TD to a TE this game.

 

Defenses

Not today, DraftKings. Not today.

 

Kickers

Wil Lutz, NO @ DAL (FD – $10,000, DK – $3,600/5,400)

Brett Maher, DAL vs NO (FD – $9,000, DK – $3,200/4,800-MVP)

It’s a big hell no from me on FanDuel tonight, and a tough pass on DraftKings. New Orleans is allowing just 3.8, THREE POINT EIGHT, FPPG to Kickers over their last five. Dallas is allowing a respectable 7.6 over the same stretch. For 3,600 I wouldn’t argue against Lutz on DraftKings, but over than that, nothing to see here.

 

Lineup Examples

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Picks Against the Spread

Saints (-8.0) @ Cowboys: O/U 53.5

I see this game starting out slow for most the first half as both offenses feel out the stout opposing defenses looking for the vulnerabilities to attack after halftime.

I see both teams succeeding in their offensive adjustments and the scores to start piling in after the half. Sean Peyton obviously > Jason Garrett, so the Saints pull away in 3rd, with Dallas making a valiant 4th comeback that falls short on Prescotts only TO of the game.

Final Score: Saints 31-24

Bets: Dallas (+8.0), Over 53.5

 

*Photo by Keith Allison

Week 12 NFL DFS Picks

JB gives his top NFL DFS picks for Week 12

Quarterback

Nick Mullens, SF @ TB (FD – $6,000, DK – $5,400)

Back to back weeks I’m going with value at the QB position, and of course here sits Mullens facing the worst passing defense in the league in a game with the highest O/U on the slate. I know the ceiling isn’t crazy in the 49ers offense, but the Bucs are allowing 23 FPPG to opposing signal callers and still have only one INT to their name this season. That floor is plenty high enough, considering the dough it’s saving me.

Baker Mayfield, CLE @ CIN (FD – $7,500, DK – $5,500)

Speaking of allowing 23 FPPG to opposing QB, here’s the guy facing the only other defense in the league matching the Buccaneers generosity. The other thing that excites me about the match-up? The Bengals allow the most rushing yards to the Quarterback position. That means we get to see those Mayfield wheels in action. The rookie has been rather efficient lately, boasting a 9:2 TD:INT ratio over his last four contests and is coming off a 22.64 FP performance against the Falcons prior to the bye week. There’s no reason to spend an extra 1,500 on FanDuel but DraftKings is practically begging you to start him this week.

 

Running Back

Nick Chubb, CLE @ CIN (FD – $7,500, DK – $6,300)

The Bengals are atrocious on defense. They allow the most FPPG to the RB position along with an absurd 153 YPG on the ground. Coming off a bye, Chubb should be fully rested after exploding for 34.4 FP against the Falcons in Week 10. This is an easy lock for your lineups.

Marlon Mack, IND vs MIA (FD – $7,000, DK – $5,500)

Thanks to facing two tough rushing defenses in a row, Mack’s price is super enticing this week in a tasty match-up against the Dolphins, especially on DraftKings where he sits as just the 12th most expensive RB on the main slate. Miami is allowing 24.1 FPPG to Running Backs this season, and the fourth most Rush YPG. Three weeks ago the Colts faced the Raiders who have very similar rush defense stats to the Phins, and Mack ripped them for 132 yards and two scores. Even with the return of Ryan Tannehill, the Colts should pull ahead early in this one, allowing Mack to do his thing.

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, LAC vs ARI (FD – $5,400, DK – $3,700)* If Melvin Gordon is OUT

 

Wide Receiver

Odell Beckham Jr, NYG @ PHI (FD – $8,500, DK – $8,800)

I tend to not like paying up for the top receivers in DFS, especially in this pass-happy era of the NFL, but I’m going cheap at QB and avoiding the top-priced RBs this week to ensure I get my shares of OBJ. The Eagles are fresh out of healthy Cornerbacks. They are literally using Wide Receivers as DBs at practice. No Jalen Mills, no Ronald Darby, no way to stop OBJ. If anybody but Eli Manning was throwing the ball in New York, we’d be looking at a peak-Megatron game from OBJ. But even with Eli, it’s gonna be a fun one for fantasy.

T.Y. Hilton, IND vs MIA (FD – $7,500, DK – $6,500)

Last week was a huge confidence boost for me with Hilton, as the Colts passing game looks back on track. I’m going to ride the hot hand here, and hope the ownership is down this week against a Miami defense that has allowed the 11th fewest FPPG to opposing WRs. Despite the overall “success” against receivers this year, the Phins are also allowing the third highest Yards per Catch and fourth highest Yards per Pass Attempt, while only getting to the QB 17 times all year. A secondary that is beatable down the field and very little pressure on Andrew Luck makes a repeat of last weeks monster game a strong possibility for Hilton.

Honorable Mentions: David Moore, SEA @ CAR (FD – $5,800 , DK – $3,700)*If Doug Baldwin is OUT

 

Tight End

Cameron Brate, TB vs SF (FD – $4,400, DK – $3,600)

We didn’t go cheap at WR or RB, so back to value searching at the TE position, chalk or not. Now that OJ Howard is on Injured Reserve, and Jameis is back under center, Cameron Brate becomes a weekly consideration despite the match-up. The 49ers have been above-average against the position but like I said its the highest O/U left on the docket and I see Jameis getting plenty of work. That means plenty of check downs to his safety valve.

Nick Vannett, SEA @ CAR (FD – $5,000, DK – $2,700)

Don’t even think about Vannett on FanDuel, but DraftKings is letting us take advantage of a great opportunity for Vannett to return value. The Panthers have allowed the most FPPG to the TE position this season, thanks to a league-leading 8 TD. Despite just four targets in the last two weeks, Vannett has found pay-dirt in two of his last three contests.

 

Defense

Indianapolis Colts vs MIA (FD – $4,400, DK – $2,900)

There are a slew of great DST options this week (BAL, LAC, JAC, BUF, NE), but I think people are sleeping on the Colts, and I’m all for it. The Colts are coming off a beat down of the Titans, and now sit at fifth in the NFL in takeaways. Ryan Tannehill should be a bit rusty in his return this week, in a game where he will be playing from behind with a beat up receiving corps.

Cleveland Browns @ CIN (FD – $3,100, DK – $2,800)

I like the Browns as a sneaky-good value play in Week 12, IF AJ Green sits. They are second in the league in takeaways and Cincy is just scoring 20.6 points per game over their last five.

*Photo by Erik Drost

Thanksgiving Day NFL DFS Picks

Nice Guy Joe gives his top NFL DFS picks for the Thanksgiving Day slate

What’s up guys? We’re bringing you a special Thanksgiving Day edition of our DFS picks, because here at The Combine we’re all about helping you ignore your families on national holidays! Jokes aside, the NFL Thanksgiving slate has become extremely popular with DFS fans and we want to help you get a (turkey) leg up on the competition this year. See what I did there? Let’s get to the picks…

Quarterback

Mitchell Trubisky, Chi @ Det (FD-$7,900 & DK-$5,900)

Man, I’m slowly but surely becoming a Mitch Trubisky truther. The guy obviously has tons of physical talent and new Bears head coach Matt Nagy appears to be the perfect play caller to utilize Trubisky’s skill set. The second-year QB’s improved play this season is very similar to the type of  jump that Jared Goff made when Sean McVay replaced Jeff Fisher. While there are similarities to Goff, Trubisky has yet to find that level of consistency.

Obviously, we are on a short slate with just three games to choose from. Trubisky’s lack of consistency brings a scary-low floor into play, but he does possess tournament-winning upside. He has cleared 30 DraftKings points an impressive four times this season, including a 39 point outing against this Lions defense just two weeks ago. It’s tough scrolling past the likes of Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, but Trubisky has a ceiling that rivals either of those QBs and should have much lower ownership. On this type of slate, we’re trying to catch lightning in a bottle and while the Chicago signal caller is volatile, he has slate-breaking potential.

 

Running Back

Alvin Kamara, Atl @ NO (FD-$8,900 & DK-$8,300)

As mentioned above, we have to be willing to embrace volatility on this type of slate, but I’m penciling Alvin Kamara into every single one of my lineups on Turkey Day. I’ve targeted RBs against this Atlanta defense throughout the season with tremendous success and don’t plan on getting fancy here.

This is the perfect storm of matchup and talent. The Falcons struggle to stop exactly what Kamara does so well. The Atlanta defense is 31st in yards allowed per carry and has allowed the most receptions to RBs in the league. We all know how explosive Kamara is with the ball in his hands and he appears to only be limited by Sean Payton’s instinct to preserve him for the playoffs. He excels at catching passes out of the backfield and will present matchup nightmares for this Falcons defense that has been absolutely destroyed by opposing RBs. There are definitely some spots that we will want to gamble on this slate, but this isn’t one of them.

 

Wide Receiver

Bruce Ellington, Chi @ Det (FD-$5,000 & DK-$3,200)

Remember about five seconds ago when I said that we will want to gamble on this slate? Well…I’ve got a longshot for you at the WR spot. We are obviously on a short week, so we will need to keep a close eye on injury news, but if Marvin Jones Jr remains out for the Detroit Lions (it appears that he will be out again) then Bruce Ellington becomes a very legit value option.

Ellington is a veteran that was signed by the Lions just a couple of weeks ago. Despite being new to the team, Ellington received a massive NINE targets in his Week 11 Detroit debut vs Carolina. With injuries to both Marvin Jones Jr and TE Michael Roberts, as well as Golden Tate’s departure to Philly, the Lions are starved for depth in the receiving corps. The Bears aren’t a dream matchup, but Ellington makes tons of sense as a very cheap tournament play that figures to continue to see a steady diet of balls thrown his way for a depleted Detroit offensive unit.

 

Tight End

Jordan Reed, Wash @ Dal (FD-$6,000 & DK-$4,700)

Believe it or not, I was actually on Jordan Reed last week. He came through for me and posted his best game of the year. I watched a lot of the Wash/Hou game and while I hated to see Alex Smith suffer a gruesome injury, it’s possible that Colt McCoy is actually an upgrade over Smith as far as Jordan Reed is concerned. The two hooked up on a late TD and McCoy seems more willing to go to Reed downfield than Smith.

Reed isn’t a far superior option to Austin Hooper or Trey Burton, but I like the combination of his matchup and secure usage at a similar price point. We’ve seen Hooper’s target totals spike in some games and that’s definitely a possibility in his Thanksgiving matchup, but New Orleans has been surprisingly effective against TEs recently. Burton’s usage is uncertain and he is almost TD dependent at this point. We should feel comfortable that Reed will get at least six targets with a possibility of 10-plus looks. A repeat of his Week 11 line of 7-71-1 is well within reach against Dallas.

 

DEF/ST

Washington Redskins, Wash @ Dal (FD-$3,700 & DK-$2,600)

It’s early in the week as I write this, so there are no concrete ownership projections yet available, but I imagine that folks will flock to either Chicago or Dallas. There are arguments that support those options, as Chicago is the “best” defense on the slate and Dallas draws a matchup against a backup QB.

Washington brings a surprisingly steady history of output to the always-volatile DEF/ST position for a middle-of-the-road price. The ‘Skins defensive unit has 10 or more fantasy points in four of their past five outings and are averaging over 3.5 sacks per game during that five game stretch. It’s never fun to square-off against Ezekiel Elliott, but Washington  fared well against Zeke this season, holding him to a season-low 33 rushing yards in their previous meeting with the Cowboys.