Week 11 NFL DFS Picks

JB gives his top NFL DFS picks for Week 11

Quarterback

Carson Wentz, PHI @ NO (FD – $7,700, DK – $6,300)

Easily the top play of the slate for me here. The Saints allow the most FPPG and second most passing yards to opposing QBs, and Wentz has scored over 22 FP is 3 of his last 4 – against some respectable defenses. Playing in the friendly confines of the Dome down in Nola, the offenses will be flying in this contest and Wentz is going to have to throw the ball a ton to stay in contention with Brees in the highest O/U on the slate. The prices are too good to pass up, especially on FanDuel where he is only the 8th most expensive QB.

Eli Manning, NYG vs TB (FD – $6,700, DK – $5,200)

Nothing bold with my two QB picks – but I take what the field is giving me, and this slate has the two worst defenses for opposing signal callers. The Buccaneers have allowed the 2nd most FPPG and an astounding 23:1 TD:INT ratio this season. There’s almost no risk. Maybe negative game flow, but I don’t see a scenario where the G-Men pull ahead far enough to go away from throwing the ball in any match up. Even Eli Manning should find success against a defense allowing a league-worst 73.6 Cmp%. In his last tasty match up, against the defense-less Falcons, Eli scored a respectable 20.7 FP.

 

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL @ ATL (FD – $8,400, DK – $8,500)

The Falcons have allowed the second most FPPG, fifth most Rushing TD, and second most Receiving TD to RBs. Here’s a list of RB facing the Falcons this season and their FP total that week: Ajayi (18.2), CMC (27.9), Kamara (34), Bernard (25.6), Conner (34.5), Barber (20.6), Barkley (24.4), AP (meh, almost his whole OLine died), and Chubb (35.9).

After two disappointing weeks in a row, Zeke bounced back in a huge way in Week 10, rushing for 151 yards and a score against PHI – adding six receptions and another score through the air. It was some nice foreshadowing for the feast he’s going to enjoy this week.

Theo Riddick, DET vs CAR (FD – $5,100, DK – $4,000)

No Golden Tate, no Marvin Jones, no Michael Roberts, no problem. That is, for your DFS roster – not necessarily the Lions. In the first week of post-Tate Lions football, Riddick caught 6 of 7 targets for 60 yards. Now with Marvin Jones sidelined, Kenny Golladay drawing most of the attention from the defense, and more than likely playing from behind most the game, Riddick should have a PPR-beauty of a game catching sidearm dump passes from the GOAT Matthew Stafford.

 

Wide Receiver

Golden Tate, PHI @ NO (FD – $6,600, DK – $5,500)

I’m not going Ertz. I’m not going Jeffery. For my QB/Weapon stack, I’m going with Golden Tate. Doug Pederson has already stated a larger role for Tate was coming in Week 11, plus a match up against PJ Williams is as good as it gets for a slot WR. Williams currently sits as the fourth worst-graded Cornerback according to Pro Football Focus. Despite giving up all them passing yards, the Saints are actually the 5th toughest defense against fantasy TEs, and Marshon Lattimore should be draped on Alshon. As long as Pederson stays true to his word, Tate should be in store for a massive game.

D.J. Moore, CAR @ DET (FD – $5,300, DK – $4,200)

There aren’t many match ups tastier than facing P.J. Williams, but then here comes the Detroit Lions secondary – not named Darius Slay. We can go ahead and safely assume Devin Funchess will be held in check all game by arguably the best CB in the league, and Torrey Smith has already been ruled out again. That means, depending on where he lines up play-to-play, D.J. Moore will be doing battle with Teez Tabor and Nevin Lawson. Let me tell you, I am a Lions fan, and I watch a lot of Lions football. These two are quite possibly the worst DBs I have watched on an NFL field. We all saw what the Bears did through the air last week with Slay sidelined. If the Panthers are moving the ball down the field consistently, which they will, it will be at the hands of Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore. He is a great value play this week despite the heartburn we all have from when he let us down two weeks ago.

Honorable Mentions: Kenny Golladay, DET vs CAR

 

Tight End

Evan Engram, NYG vs TB (FD – $5,800, DK – $4,100)

Even if you don’t go with Eli, you want at least one piece of the NYG offense this week. My top choice is Evan Engram. Tampa Bay has allowed the most yards and second most FPPG to opposing TEs. Engram has seen 18 targets over the last three games and should make the most of the them this week. He’s got the best match up on paper, and only the 7th highest salary among TE on the main slate.

Luke Willson, DET vs CAR (FD – $4,400, DK – $2,500)

Bare with me. No, the Lions offense cannot seem to support a fantasy TE. Yes, Stafford will look everywhere else before looking for Willson. But if there was an opportunity for Willson to be fantasy relevant, its now. Michael Roberts has been ruled out, and as previously discussed, the team is running low on WR. Then there’s the fact that the Panthers are handing out TD for free to opposing TE, allowing a league-high 8 on the season which has led to the highest FPPG allowed to the position. Four weeks ago Roberts had a two TD game….. maybe its Willson’s turn.

 

Defense

Pittsburgh Steelers @ JAX (FD – $3,800, DK – $2,900)

The Steelers have a top ten defense in terms of Total Yards and Scoring%, and are tied for the second most sacks. However they have been lacking in turnovers, which is where the Jaguars come in with the 5th highest turnover total. Pittsburgh the offensive firepower to get a lead on the Jags early, and force Blake Bortles into catch-up mode, which is exactly what we want.

 

*Photo by Keith Allison

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Tuesday Morning Tilt

What’s up guys? I’m back with a second edition of Tuesday Morning Tilt. I’d like to thank all 14 of you that read last week’s debut column! Entering with big goals this week, as we shoot for at least 20 readers! Probably won’t get there…but we’re all about positive thinking here at The Combine.

For those of you that are checking out TMT for the first time, I take Peter King’s beloved Monday Morning QB format and turn it into something that is completely unprofessional and nowhere near as good. Let’s go.

Fantasy Football Gave Me A Chubb-y This Week

I told you guys how I got lucky and won in my fantasy league last week due to a late Gronk scratch. Well…that win streak came to an end real quick. I was playing the youngest guy in our fantasy league this week and of course he’s always got a stacked team, because he’s the only guy in the league without kids and actually has free time to research this shit. I never beat this dude, but I’ve got Nick Chubb on my team and was holding my own when Chubb broke a 92-yard TD run. I WAS LOSING MY FUCKING MIND at this point! As any self-respecting fantasy football veteran would do, I immediately started talking shit via our league group text. Then, of course…Alvin Kamara, Devante Adams, and Zach Ertz absolutely destroy my ass and I lose, which drops my record to a warm and cozy 3-7. By the way, when did Cleveland start celebrating every Browns victory like it’s the fucking Super Bowl? I’ll give them a pass on the win that broke the long losing streak, but we’re past that point now. Your supposed to win some games Cleveland, you don’t get a damn parade for beating the Falcons at home.

Emotional Hedge Bets and Shopping With The Girls

For those of you that don’t know, I’m a long-suffering Tennessee Volunteer football fan. There hasn’t been much to cheer about the last few years, so I’ve developed the habit of making “emotional hedge bets” when my Vols are playing. It’s a pretty simple concept…I put a small amount on the team that Tennessee is playing, if the Vols lose, I get a little monetary reward to soften the blow of the loss and if Tennessee wins I’m happy to pay. It’s a system that works well for me in my warped, football-fan mind. Those of you that follow college football probably know that it’s been another down year for my Vols, which has led to a pretty decent little nest egg this season. Well…this past Saturday, Tennessee was hosting the Kentucky Wildcats, one of our hated rivals that also happened to be ranked #17 nationally. Kentucky was a 4.5 point favorite over Tennessee…a lock if I’ve ever seen one. So, I decide to put my entire season’s worth of emotional hedge winnings on the Wildcats. It was a 3:30 kickoff and I put my bet in fairly early in the day. After I get the bet down, my wife tells me that our daughter desperately needs “winter clothes” and that we’re going shopping. Those of you that are fathers know that clothes shopping with your wife and daughter is it’s own special kind of torture, but as an added bonus this little excursion would be taking place during the game that I had tons of money on. Of course…the Vols play inspired football and win straight up, costing me my entire “emotional hedge” bankroll. This crushing loss/uplifting victory is going on while my wife and daughter are feverishly spending my hard-earned money on ridiculous items my daughter apparently “needs”, like shoes and a jacket. Don’t they know I could put that money in action for the Vols’ last two games of the season? I could practically guarantee that we win out by losing the right amount of money!

Keeping Up With The Kowboys

I’m not sure exactly why, but I’m utterly fascinated by the Dallas Cowboys. I think it’s kind of similar to those horrible reality shows that my wife watches on E! and Bravo. The Cowboys are my Kardashians. I would legitimately pay a large sum of money to watch an uncensored, no-holds-barred reality series that focused on Jerry Jones and the behind-the-scenes operations of the Cowboys year round, like Hard Knocks but dialed up to 20. I’m convinced that Jason Garrett has video of Jerry Jones killing puppies or something. Every time this entitled prick seems on the verge of losing his job, he somehow miraculously pulls out a win, like he did against Philly Sunday night. I sympathize with Jerry Jones, because I think I would probably act the same way Jones does. If I were an old, out of touch billionaire, I’d totally build awesome stadiums with bars and dancers everywhere and give huge, salary-cap crippling contracts to players that were “my guys”. I also really appreciate that he was the one owner that called Roger Goodell out for being a total fucking failure at his job when the commissioner’s contract came up for renewal. Jerry’s heart is in the right place and he’s willing to do anything to help his team win, but he’s always waaaay off base with his attempts to help the franchise. The Patriots got Josh Gordon in a trade for peanuts, the Eagles gave a third-round pick for Golden Tate. Jerry knows that the Cowboys need a wide receiver, so he gives up a first-round draft pick for…Amari Cooper?!? I bet Jerry’s the type of grandpa that would buy his grandson a gold Rolex watch for his eighth birthday. It’s a nice gesture and shows you he really cares…but what the fuck does an eight-year old do with a Rolex?

Put Another (Bologna) Log On The Smoker

I didn’t get to try any fancy beer or take any trips this weekend. I did get the chance to go over to a buddy’s house Sunday afternoon to watch football. Several of my friends are into the bbq thing. They have fancy smokers and Green Eggs. They perfect recipes and processes for smoking ribs and other things. I am totally cool with this, as I do none of the work and don’t invest any time or money, but still get to eat some awesome food from time to time. This Sunday my buddy smoked ribs, but he also smoked something called a bologna roll. I’m not sure how popular this stuff is outside of the South, but basically it’s a huge slab of bologna that’s about the size of a football. My friend injected this thing with jalapenos and smoked it for hours with hickory wood. It was amazing! It was also something that my cardiologist could build a vacation home on. I’m pretty sure I’ve got a heart attack coming any day now. If I somehow survive, I’ll see you here next Tuesday morning.

 

 

 

 

 

Week 9 NFL DFS Picks

RowdyRotoJB gives his top NFL DFS picks for Week 9

Quarterback

Cam Newton, CAR vs TB (FD – $8,600, DK – $6,600)

The top play here is obvious and covered in chalk: Cam Newton at home vs the Bucs secondary that has allowed the most Passing TD to opposing QBs in 2018. In addition, the Bucs have switched back to Ryan FitzMagic under center, which should keep them in contention and has propelled the over/under up to 55, the 2nd highest on the main slate. Newton has scored over 24 FP in three straight contests, two against top ten secondaries. He costs less than Mahomes on both sites, and has the same monstrous ceiling in this match-up.

Russell Wilson, SEA vs LAC (FD – $7,700, DK – $5,900)

If you are looking for some variance from the pack, and to save some dough, Wilson has a very enticing match-up against the Bolts this week. The Chargers might not look like a secondary to exploit at first glance, but that is solely due to their recent opponents. In five of their first seven contests they faced BUF, SF, OAK, CLE, and TEN. If you wanted to inflate your team passing defense stats, that’s the path right there. In the other two games, Patrick Mahomes threw 4 TD and Jared Goff hung 354 yards on them. They have also given up the third most 20+ Yard receptions this season, which means Tyler Lockett and maybe even Doug Baldwin finally should be getting behind the safeties often. If you watched the Seahawks in Week 8, you saw Wilson tossing dimes down the field against the Lions secondary. The volume isn’t there still, but in what should be a shootout with Philip Rivers – Pete Carroll is going to have to rely on Wilsons arm like the good ol’ times when he was a top 3 fantasy QB.

Running Back

Kareem Hunt, KC @ CLE (FD – $8,500, DK – $7,700)

I am expecting things to be pretty out of hand in this game by the second half. There is a reason the Browns allow 138.9 Rushing Yards per Game and the most Rushing TD in the league. With that being said, Hunt should see plenty of volume this week, and he will feast. He is already up to 10 TD on the season, just 1 shy of his 2017 total. He should tie and pass that number against CLE.

Isaiah Crowell, NYJ @ MIA (FD – $5,700, DK – $4,200)

I hate relying on Crowell for anything as much as you, especially with money on the line. But give me the ball against this Dolphins defense and I’m going to return value at this price. The Phins are allowed 143.1 Rushing Yards per game in 2018. They let Lamar Miller run for 133 and a score last week. LAMAR MILLER. Kerryon Johnson ran for 158 the week before that. A LIONS RUNNING BACK. I know Crowell shat the bed in Week 2 against this team, but that was back when Sam Darnold had a plethora of healthy WR to throw to, even Bilal Powell. He threw 41 passes for 334 yards. He hasn’t sniffed that since. If the Jets want to win this Divisional match-up, they are going to have to run Crowell into the ground. Here’s to hoping Todd Bowles recognizes that.

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp, LAR @ NO (FD – $6,800, DK – $6,000)

I’m not paying up for a WR this week, and Kupp is going to be my anchor of value studs. Coming off his knee injury, his price is as low as it will be for the rest of the year. The Saints have been lit up through the air this season, giving up 300 yards per game, a 15:3 TD:INT ratio, and a 70.1 Cmp%. Adam Thielen enjoyed success from the slot last week, and Kupp will have a big welcome back party against PJ Williams.  Goff gets his go-to WR back, and Kupp looks to continue his 15.2 FP/G season.

D.J. Moore, CAR vs TB (FD – $5,300, DK – $4,300)

You like stacking your QB with his weapons? Well, it doesn’t get much better than finding one for this cheap. Torrey Smith has already been ruled out for Week 9, and Moore is coming off a 5 Rec, 90 Yds performance against the toughest defense in football. We already discussed the Bucs woes in defending the pass. This is an easy choice.

Honorable Mentions: Kenny Golladay & Marvin Jones Jr, DET @ MIN

Tight End

David Njoku, CLE vs KC (FD – $5,200, DK – $4,600)

Fool me once, shame on you. Njoku ain’t fooling anyone this week though. There is no way a new head coach and OC walk into their new office and think, “Let’s avoid Njoku again this week, that seemed to work out well last time.” The Chiefs have allowed the 3rd most FP to opposing TEs this week, and expecting to be playing from behind early – Mayfield is going to target Njoku heavily to keep the chains moving. Before the dud in Week 8, Njoku had 4 consecutive games with 50+ yards, and TDs in two straight.

Greg Olsen, CAR vs TB (FD – $6,200, DK – $4,700)

I’m not going to pay an extra thousand to play Olsen on FanDuel, but being only 100 bucks more than Njoku on DraftKings makes it an easy call to stack along with D.J. Moore. Olsen has scored in consecutive weeks, and facing the 2nd most generous defense to the TE position.

Defense

Chicago Bears @ BUF (FD – $5,400, DK – $4,100)

Nathan Peterman. That is all.