Week 14 NFL Picks ATS

The Rowdy Sports Guys at The Combine team up with Kev, Ben Rolfe, and Kingy to bring you their Week 14 NFL picks ATS

Welcome to Week 14 of the NFL season, fellow degenerates. We called on a few more buddies today to help us with some Consensus Picks. Today we have some more RotoBallers – Ben Rolfe, RotoSurgeon-Kev, Kingy along with Combiners RowdyRotoJB, Ronnie Boo-Boo Child, El Presidente, Nice Guy Joe, and Spence. The spreads were recorded Friday, 07 December. Here is the final product:

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The Majority Picks

  1. Bills (-3.5)
  2. Browns (+2.0)
  3. Panthers @ Browns – Over 47.0
    • Both defenses rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per game, and the Panthers have lost the ability to force turnovers. Both offenses should be on display this week looking to rebound from tough losses in Week 13.
  4. Falcons @ Packers – Over 51.0
    • Two of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league facing two defenses that struggle to cover receivers. All eyes will be on interim HC Joe Philbin as he looks to make a big first impression.
  5. Texans (-5.0)
  6. Chiefs (-7.0)
  7. Ravens @ Chiefs – Under 51.0
  8. Dolphins (+8.0)
  9. Patriots @ Dolphins – 47.0
  10. Giants (-4.0)
    • Even without OBJ, you have to like the odds of the team coming off an impressive victory against the Bears against an offense led by Mark Sanchez.
  11. Giants @ Redskins – Under 41.0
    • Mark Sanchez + 2 Offenses in the bottom half of the league in plays per game – OBJ = No brainer.
  12. Chargers (-14.0)
    • Philip Rivers and his 6th ranked offense facing the 32nd ranked Bengals defense at home with no AJ Green or Andy Dalton to play catch-up.
  13. Bengals @ Chargers – Over 47.5
  14. Broncos (-4.0)
  15. Broncos @ 49ers – Under 45.5
  16. Lions (-3.0)
  17. Eagles @ Cowboys – Over 44.0
  18. Steelers @ Raiders – Over 51.5
  19. Vikings (+3.0)

The Unanimous Rowdy Pick of Week 14

  1. Steelers (-10.0)
    • Even without James Connor, the Steelers passing game should have a field day against the Raiders secondary, while their pass rush prevents Derek Carr from closing the gap.

 

Agree or disagree with our picks? Which guy do you see finishing with the highest percentage this week? Leave a comment or hit us up on Twitter!

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NFL Week 14 Bet of the Week

Spencer Aguiar digs into his top rowdy bets for Week 14 of the NFL season

Welcome back to The Combine Sports and another edition of the Bet of the Week article. It’s always nice to have a pressure-free bet that easily gets us to the winner’s circle, and that is precisely what the Houston Texans -4.5 granted us against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.

In last week’s article, we talked about how even though the Texans are an overrated team by all statistical metrics, they would be able to effectively run the football against a Browns team that is ranked dead last in the NFL in defending explosive running plays. Lamar Miller carried the ball 19 times for 103 yards, and Alfred Blue added another 54 yards on the ground, which doesn’t include Blue’s 30-yard touchdown scamper that was taken back because of a penalty late in the game.

On the flip side of the ball, we were also accurately able to depict some of the potential struggles that Baker Mayfield might encounter on the day. The Texans came into the contest ranked second in the NFL in defending both explosive runs and passes and were the first quality defense that Mayfield had faced since his three-game explosion against the Chiefs, Falcons and Bengals, who were all ranked in the bottom four defending the run.

The ability for the Browns to get running back Nick Chubb going on the ground had been a significant advantage that Mayfield was using to get the offense performing through the air, and the inability to get a run game going put the young quarterback into some precarious positions that he had not faced in a few weeks. Mayfield’s 397 passing yards were impressive, but his three critical interceptions helped us to almost spot-on call the final score of 29-13. Hey, I predicted 30-13, you can’t be 100 percent right about everything!

The slate for Week 14 looks like a bomb went off when you first glance at some of the lines, but I believe there are some great value plays when you dive a little deeper. Early numbers show that the public bettors will be on the Chiefs, Texans, Saints, Patriots, Rams, Giants, Broncos, Cowboys and Seahawks, and the sports books will need the opposite of these games on Sunday and Monday. In the spirit of the holiday season, this week’s article will feature three games I will be covering as the bet(s) of the week. We might be rowdy as all hell here at the Combine Sports and on Santa’s naughty list, but the good little girls and boys that read this article deserve a couple of extra stocking stuffers this year. Without further ado, let’s get into our plays of the week.

Denver Broncos (-5.0) versus the San Francisco 49ers (+5.0) O/U 45.5

Part of successful gambling is making sure you get the best of the number. You aren’t always going to be accurate in gauging movements but trying to either get ahead of a line or waiting for the line to drift in your favor is a vital part of showing profit long-term.

These articles come out towards the end of the week, so it’s not always possible for us to beat the numbers on here. That is one reason why I have been trying to utilize my Twitter account to update potential movements that are going to run away from us as the week goes on. At the time of writing this, there are still some +4.5 and +5’s available in the market, but that price is on the steady decline for a couple of reasons. Key losses to wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (Achilles) and cornerback Chris Harris (leg) have forced the Broncos to make adjustments to their game plan for Sunday’s contest, and these two injuries are potential game-changers for Denver on both sides of the ball.

San Francisco brings with them a 2-10 record, but they aren’t metrically as bad as their win/loss total appears to state. The 49ers have outgained opponents this year and grade out as a top-15 team in a lot of efficiency statistics. What that goes and shows is that the Niners are losing games this season because of turnover mistakes and not with their on-field play production.

Before the injury to Emmanuel Sanders, Denver was still an extremely one-dimensional unit, ranking second in the NFL in run offense and a lousy 20th in passing. With the loss of Sanders, the team loses a wide receiver that was seeing a 23.8 percent target share. The next highest target share belongs to rookie Courtland Sutton, who has seen a 14.3 percent target rate — followed by Demaryius Thomas at 13.8 percent — and he only played eight weeks for the Broncos before getting traded to the Houston Texans. Neither Sanders or Thomas are walking through that door on Sunday, and the team is going to be without nearly 40 percent of their targets on the year.

The idea here is that if the Broncos can’t throw the football on the road, they are going to become a predictable offense that is going to try and rely on two rookie running backs to get the job done. Phillip Lindsay has been spectacular on the season, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt, but he isn’t a bruising back that is going to be able to carry the ball 20 plus times. Royce Freeman, on the other hand, has been awful and is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry on almost 10 attempts per game in his past five contests.

When you start breaking down the 49ers from a statistical standpoint, they are quite impressive, at least when compared to their record. They allow only 46 percent of runs to be successful — ranking them 11th in the NFL and just 44 percent of passes — good for fifth best in the league. The Niners also rank 12th in explosive run plays allowed on defense, which should prevent some of the quick-hitters that Lindsay will be looking to execute on Sunday.

The 49ers are less equipped offensively, but they are not immune to a big play or two themselves, ranking fifth in explosive runs and sixth in explosive passes. Wide receiver Marquise Goodwin is projected to be active after missing the previous two weeks, and his big-play ability has the potential to break open the game versus a Denver defense that ranks 25th in the NFL in allowing explosive passes. Goodwin is averaging 19.9 yards per catch and might be able to bust loose from a Denver unit that will be susceptible to the deep ball without their best defender Chris Harris.

Rowdy Bold Prediction: San Francisco 24 – Denver 20

Recommended Bet: San Francisco (+5.0)

Indianapolis Colts (+5.0) versus the Houston Texans (-5.0) O/U 50.0

A week removed from our Houston Texans selection over the Cleveland Browns, we will go back to the drawing board again with a pick involving this team. I don’t want to sound like a broken record spitting out the same statistical data as I did last week with the Texans because not much has changed with their metrics, so I’ll try to avoid being redundant while still getting the point across.

A lot of the critical factors that we ignored with the Texans in Week 13 will be the same determinants of why I believe the Colts are live dogs to spring the upset on Sunday. Houston found themselves in a prime position against Cleveland of being a runaway freight train versus a rookie quarterback that was a deer in headlights against the vaunted Texans front four. And that is to take nothing away from Baker Mayfield, but it was an excellent spot for Houston to continue their winning ways against a young offense.

No matter how you want to shake it, the Texans are an overrated team that has overachieved so far this year. Nine wins in a row after starting 0-3 is impressive, but there’s still a lot to be concerned about going forward. Houston ranks just 21st in offensive efficiency and 30th in adjusted sack rate with their offensive line. And while Indianapolis isn’t going to be a team that will apply a ton of pressure to Deshaun Watson –and I think Watson can have some success in the game — the Colts grade out as the 11th most efficient defense in football and are inside the top-10 in limiting both explosive runs and passes.

It’s tough to make a convincing argument for the Colts after they were shut out for the first time in Andrew Luck’s career last week in Jacksonville, but if you break down some of the significant plays to that game, you realize that Indianapolis missed a handful of opportunities that would have completely altered the outcome. For starters, Luck threw an interception inside the Jaguars 20-yard line on the first drive of the game, and the team also missed two critical fourth down situations — one where they decided to punt from midfield instead of going for it on fourth and one, and the other involved Indy getting stopped on fourth and goal from the two-yard line. Those are critical plays that will swing a game away from you, especially if you are on the wrong side of all of these results.

Ironically, the Texans had a completely different experience on Sunday. Cleveland managed to average 8.2 yards per play against them but outside of the 13 points they scored, the team faltered during the five other possessions inside Houston territory, coming away with zero points during those drives. The same could even be said when the Texans were able to beat the Tennessee Titans 34-17 the week before that. Marcus Mariota completed 22-23 attempts, and the game swung when the Titans failed to convert on a 4th and 1 from the one-yard line, inexplicably giving the ball to their tight end instead of Derrick Henry.

Houston has faced the second easiest schedule on the season against opposing offenses, and Indianapolis won’t be the pushover that some of these teams have shown to be. The Colts rank second in adjusted sack rate with their offensive line and grade out inside the top-10 in both run and pass success rate. The Texans are rated 16th in defensive success rate against the pass, so Luck will have a chance to thrive against a questionable secondary.

The lookahead line for this game was Houston -3 last week, and there has been nothing to warrant this movement outside of last week’s results. Indianapolis is ranked ninth in the NFL with a 65.9 percent touchdown conversion rate inside the red zone as where the Texans come in at just 25th overall at 48.9 percent. Defensively, the numbers remain just about the same. The Colts prevent a touchdown 50 percent of the time — good for sixth best in the league, and the Texans are allowing a whopping 71 percent of drives to end in a score — ranking 27th overall. I believe that Houston sees their win streak come to an end this weekend at the hands of Andrew Luck.

Rowdy Bold Prediction: Indianapolis 31 – Houston 27

Recommended Bet: Indianapolis (+5.0)

Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) versus the Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) O/U 43.0

Our last bet of the day keeps us in the state of Texas for the Philadelphia Eagles taking on the Dallas Cowboys. These two teams met on November 11th in a game that saw the Cowboys steal a road victory 27-20. The contest only produced 26 points in the first three quarters but erupted for 21 points in the fourth quarter to eek past the total of 46.

The Eagles have provided a 1-6 over record this season at home, and the aforementioned first meeting was the only game of theirs that has gone over the total. However, Philadelphia has been a much different team on the road this season. Not counting the London game versus Jacksonville, the Eagles are 3-1 on overs and haven’t played in a game that has provided less than 47 points this year away from Lincoln Financial Field.

The Cowboys are the exact opposite of that trend. They are 1-5 on the road to the over this year, with the first meeting resulting in the only over they have played away from home. Nevertheless, though, Dallas games have gone over in four of the six matchups held inside their building. Both of those trends are a good sign towards the over on Sunday, but let’s dive a little deeper into the matchup to see if statistics agree with the results that have been yielded.

Sharp bettors have been ahead of the market when it comes to the Eagles secondary. Injuries have ravished the team, and if it wasn’t for Colt McCoy exiting Monday’s game and having Mark Sanchez replace him, we were looking at a potential shootout on our hands. We instead landed under the total because of an anemic performance by Washington, but Philadelphia could have provided a 40-point outburst of their own if they weren’t held to zero points on two separate occasions inside the Redskins five-yard line.

The most impressive improvement for the Eagles has been the play from Carson Wentz. The 25-year-old got off to a slow start this season after suffering a torn ACL towards the end of last year but is beginning to look like his usual self. Wentz has shown more willingness to move outside the pocket and push the ball down the field for big chunk plays, which would help to explain their sudden rise into the top-12 in offensive success rate in passing (12th) and rushing (11th).

Dallas has been experiencing a renaissance of their own here as of late. If we only look at the Cowboys since the acquisition of Amari Cooper, they have increased their passing success rate from 27th in the league to 13th. However, the perception around Dallas’ defense is going to be what drives people to the window to bet the under. The Cowboys have held teams to just 17.5 points per game in the past four contests, which includes keeping the Saints to only 10 points last Thursday.

But statistics don’t always tell the whole story. In the same four-week span, the Cowboys have graded out 21st in pass rate success defense and 25th in rush rate success defense, allowing 7.2 yards through the air per play and 4.4 yards on the ground. Sean Lee (hamstring) is on the wrong side of questionable for Sunday’s game, but his return would help the Cowboys defend the tight end position. Zach Ertz exploded with 14 catches for 145 yards and two touchdowns in their first meeting and will be a difficult matchup for the Cowboys to defend if Lee isn’t active. Dallas currently allows the sixth most receptions to tight ends this year.

For all intents and purposes, this is an elimination game in the NFC that should allow both teams to play with urgency and aggressiveness. Wentz is going to have to be aggressive to keep this game competitive, and the Cowboys should be able to do just about anything they want when they have the ball. I am not a huge over bettor historically but am very encouraged by the way this game sets up for points to hit the board. I would anticipate this number creeping up as the week goes on and wouldn’t wait long to get my wager placed.

Rowdy Bold Prediction: Dallas 27 – Philadelphia 24

Recommended Bet: Over 43 Points

 

 

 

 

 

Week 14 TNF NFL DFS Picks: Jaguars – Titans Preview

JB reviews Week 14’s TNF match-up between Tennessee and Jacksonville, giving his top DFS Picks and recommended bets.

Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota, TEN vs JAX (FD – $16,000, DK – $10,400/15,600*CPT)

Any offensive player in this match-up carries significant risk, made evident by the tiny O/U from Vegas. Mariota is no exception against this Jaguars defense that has allowed the third fewest Passing Yards and tied for the first fewest Passing TD this season. However, over their last five games opposing QB have scored 20.38 FPPG. One of the contributing factors has been via the ground. For the season JAX has given up the most Rushing Yards and Rushing TD to the QB position. Mariota has 10 rushing attempts twice this season, and took off seven times the last time these teams faced. He has scored at least 22 FP in four of his last five, with 2 TD in each of those four games. Despite the stinginess of the Jags, they rank in the bottom half of the league in INT and Sacks, which means I’m going with Mariota tonight and hoping his legs can keep the chains moving.

Cody Kessler, JAX @ TEN (FD – $13,500, DK – $9,000/13,500*CPT)

On the other side of the field, the Titans defense ranks directly behind Jacksonville in both fewest Passing Yards and fewest Passing TD allowed this season. While they too rank in the bottom half in INT and Sacks, there’s no way Cody Kessler travels on a short week and puts up useful fantasy numbers tonight. Last week in his first start of the season he scored 8.8 FP, throwing for 150 yards with a fumble. I find his price tags quite offensive.

 

Running Backs

Dion Lewis, TEN vs JAX (FD – $11,000, DK – $7,400/11,100*CPT)   

Derrick Henry, TEN vs JAX (FD – $12,000, DK – $7,000/10,500*CPT)

The Titans backfield has almost become a complete 50/50 split, and recently Henry has been the beneficiary due to scoring four TD in his last five games. Lewis on the other hand hasn’t seen double digit FP since Week 9 against Dallas, and that was largely in part to catching four passes for 60 yards and a score. This is why I prefer Lewis over Henry tonight. Because like Dallas, Jacksonville’s defense has been fantastic against the run, allowing the third fewest FPPG to RB this season and just 5.9 FPPG to RB1 in their last five games. RB2 like Wendell Smallwood and Nyheim Hines found success via the air against this Defense, and I think Lewis has the potential to scrape out value if he can turn one of those screens into 6 points.

Leonard Fournette, JAX @ TEN (FD – $17,000, DK – $12,000/18,000*CPT)

T.J. Yeldon, JAX @ TEN (FD – $8,500, DK – $6,400/9,600*CPT)

The one guy I have no concerns about tonight, aside from a possible ejection. That is because a healthy Fournette is match-up proof. He has scored over 21 FP in three straight contests, with four TD over that span. You best believe Kessler’s number one objective tonight is to hand the rock to this guy, especially with how Tennessee’s defense has handled RB1’s recently. The Titans are allowing 13.74 FPPG to RB1 over their last five, but that’s with the complete shutdown of New England in Week 10. Isaiah Crowell, Lamar Miller, Marlon Mack, and of course Ezekiel Elliott all enjoyed double digit outings in their match-ups with this defense. Yeldon on the other hand presents a sneaky value opportunity despite the return of Fournette.  Kessler checked down to Yeldon eight times last week, and even if that number decreases slightly with Fournette in during early-downs, Yeldon still has a legitimate shot at being the teams leading receiver.

 

Wide Receivers

Corey Davis, TEN vs JAX (FD – $14,000, DK – $8,400/12,600*CPT)

Tajae Sharpe, TEN vs JAX (FD – $10,000, DK – $4,600/6,900*CPT)

I think this may be the first game that I want to fade every wide receiver from both sides. Jacksonville allowed the fewest Receiving TD to WR this season, along with the fourth lowest FPPG. Over the last five games, they are allowing just 10.06 FPPG to WR1, with Antonio Brown being the only one to top 20 FP. The match-up is tough to say the least. Davis has scored 20+ FP in two of his last five games, scoring three times in the span while averaging 7 targets per game. The kid is good, but he’s not Antonio Brown quite yet, which means those lofty prices only leave room for disappointment from his fantasy owners tonight against Jalen Ramsey. Sharpe has been the clear #2 choice for Mariota recently, averaging 5.2 targets per game over the last five, and scoring double digit FP twice. The other three games on the other hand, were goose eggs. The DraftKings price makes him a very intriguing dart throw, but neither are recommended tonight.

Donte Moncrief, JAX @ TEN (FD – $7,000, DK – $5,600/8,400*CPT)                           

Dede Westbrook, JAX @ TEN (FD – $8,000, DK – $6,800/10,200*CPT)

The Titans are no cakewalk for WR either, but have surrendered 25.6 FPPG to WR this season. Over their last five games they are allowing 13.64 FPPG to WR1, getting torched by T.Y. Hilton in Week 11. So this secondary is definitely beatable…..by Andrew Luck. The prices are all great for this WR corps, but how can you trust them with Cody Kessler at the helm? You cannot.

 

Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith, TEN vs JAX (FD – $9,000, DK – $5,000/7,500*CPT) 

Anthony Firkser, TEN vs JAX (FD – $8,000, DK – $4,000/6,000*CPT)

I feel like its going to be a TE kind of a game for the Titans tonight. Jacksonville is tied for the 5th most TD allowed to the TE position this season, thanks to Eric Ebron mostly, and are allowing 8.5 FPPG this season. Jonnu has only seen over three targets once all season, but has been very efficient lately, scoring three TD in his last five contests. Firkser has emerged as a viable option in this offense, as Mariota has yet to miss a connection with him albeit there have only been 13 so far. He has averaged over ten yards per catch this season, has three straight games over 40 yards, and scored his first TD last week against the Jets. The production is trending upward, and since the Colts were able to do it with Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron three weeks ago – why not go double TE tonight? Someone has to score for the Titans tonight, and I think its both of these guys.

 

Defenses

Jaguars @ TEN (DK – $5,800/8,700*CPT)

Titans vs JAX (DK – $6,000/9,000*CPT)

Despite this game having the lowest O/U of the week, and featuring Cody Kessler, I’m not that excited about playing either DST on DraftKings tonight. Both defenses have less than 10 INT and 30 Sacks on the season. I don’t see either team being forced to throw at any point, or the Jags wanting the ball out of Fournette’s hands. There will be plenty of punts, and the low scores create a nice comfy floor for both DSTs, but surprisingly I don’t think the ceilings are as high as we want.

 

Kickers

Ryan Succop, TEN vs JAX (FD – $9,500, DK – $3,600/5,100*CPT)

Josh Lambo, JAX @ TEN (FD – $9,000, DK – $3,400/5,100*CPT)

I love kickers. Keep them in fantasy forever. I especially love the spot Josh Lambo will be in tonight. The Titans defense boasts the leagues best Red Zone TD%. When you combine this with Cody Kessler as the opposing QB, you get a very busy Lambo. He has scored double digit FP in 3 of his last five games, and the fact that he costs less than Succop on both sites is the cherry on top.

 

Lineup Examples

You got to get weird sometimes on Single Game slates, and Same-team RBs, Same-team TEs, and a K is as weird as you can get.

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Picks Against the Spread

(Titans (-5.0) vs Jaguars: O/U 37.5)

Final Score Prediction: Titans 20, Jaguars 13

Bets: Titans (-5.0), Under 37.5

 

*Photo by Chipermc

Tuesday Morning Tilt – Week 14 Edition

Green Bay finally decided to move on from Mike McCarthy and Browns fans should be very nervous!

Welcome back to Tuesday Morning Tilt here at The Combine! There’s no new Dwight Howard developments, so I guess we’ll have to make due with what we’ve got. As we head into Week 14 of the NFL season, some coaches seats are getting hot and one cat that was long overdue got stone-cold ejected after a brutal loss. No point in beating around the bush…away we go!

Mike McCarthy Fired in Green Bay

Congratulations Packers fans, you are minus one huge asshole on the Frozen Tundra this week! I lost my cool about Mike McCarthy in this column a few weeks ago and now here we are. After losing to the Arizona Cardinals at Lambeau Fucking Field, Green Bay decided enough was enough and sent McCarthy packing. The fans have known this guy was an idiot for years and management finally woke up after losing at home to the Josh Rosen-led juggernaut that is the Cardinals offense.

How do you have a losing record with Aaron Rodgers at QB?!? Serious question…when was the last time you watched a Packers game and came away saying, “Boy, that Rodgers really sucked today. He blew that one for the Pack!” The answer is…almost never, because Rodgers is awesome. Another question… when was the last time you watched a Packers game and came away saying, “Jesus, McCarthy is fucking terrible! Aaron Jones gained 70 yards on five damn carries, why the hell are they playing Jamal Williams?” The answer is…almost every week for the last two seasons.

I don’t give a damn what coach Green Bay hires, they will win 10 games next year if Rodgers is healthy. Ok…maybe not with Jeff Fisher, but any other coach they could possibly hire wins 10 games. Ok…maybe not John Fox, he fucking sucks too. Ok…any coach other than Jeff Fisher or John Fox will auto-win 10 games with Green Bay next year. Since Fisher and Fox probably won’t get the job (although more idiotic things have happened in the NFL), let’s take a look at the five guys that would be the most awesome choices:

#1. Jon Gruden: How amazing would it be for Gruden to just totally troll the Raiders in this spot? Oakland gave him a 10-year, $100 million contract with almost total control of the organization less than a year ago and Gruden has spent his every waking hour since taking the job blowing up the Raiders roster by trading every decent player Oakland had. He has put once-promising QB Derek Carr through psychological torture that would break the most hardened CIA operative and has been in full-blown tank mode since Week 4. What if he left Oakland with this huge dumpster fire that he created, in order to go coach Aaron Rodgers in his old Green Bay stomping grounds? Raiders owner Mark Davis might commit suicide if this happened.

#2. Kliff Kingbury: The recently fired Texas Tech coach is an offensive genius. He’s also perhaps the best looking football coach in history. I need this to happen just to see how many chicks Kingsbury and Rodgers could nail in the great state of Wisconsin. These two bros would be snapping necks and cashing checks in the NFC North, until Kingsbury gets caught banging Danica Patrick and the whole operation goes off the rails.

#3. Bruce Arians: I always mention Bruce Arians for every head coaching job, just because I think he’s an awesome dude.

#4. Jim Harbaugh: This is the only potential candidate on this list that could legitimately get the job. Things haven’t worked out for the Michigan man at his alma matter and Harbaugh might be better suited to the NFL game. It seems like an eternity ago, but he did take the lowly Niners to three conference championship games in four years. Would there ever be a better opportunity to come back to the NFL than the Green Bay Packers with Rodgers at QB? I would love to see what kind of crazy shit this milk-drinking bastard would come up with in the cheese capital of the world.

#5. Matt Nagy: What better way to give the ultimate middle finger to your oldest rival than to steal the best coach they’ve had in decades? The Bears are a storied franchise that has had some terrible head coaches over the last several years. I think it was pretty much universally agreed upon by Bears fans that even though Lovie Smith took them to a Super Bowl, he still sucked. The guy that was coaching in the CFL before getting the job? John Fox? Give me a break! It seems like Chicago has finally found a keeper in first-year coach Matt Nagy, who has made great strides with the Bears QB of the future Mitch Trubisky. The Packers could rip the heart out of an entire city by luring Nagy to Lambeau.

I’m not sure who will end up coaching the Green Bay Packers next year, but it sure as hell won’t be Mike McCarthy…and for that Packer fans can be thankful this holiday season. Unfortunately, Cleveland Browns fans should start getting really, really, nervous. I’m afraid that if McCarthy comes to town, you will have years of Baker Mayfield being completely wasted. Here’s my advice to the Browns organization: DON’T HIRE THIS FUCKING IDIOT! There you go Cleveland, I tried to help. In my opinion, the perfect job for McCarthy would be the L.A. Chargers. The Chargers are so used to underachieving with a great quarterback that McCarthy could get in a nice five or six years on the job before anybody even noticed that he was there.

Week 13 MNF NFL DFS Picks: Redskins – Eagles Preview

JB reviews Week 13’s MNF match-up between Philadelphia and Washington, giving his top DFS Picks and recommended bets.

Quarterbacks

Colt McCoy, WAS @ PHI (FD – $14,000, DK – $8,800/13,200-MVP)

He’s from Texas, his name is Colt, and he ain’t afraid to sling it. My FanDuel MVP (1.5x Points) tonight, McCoy faces a depleted Eagles secondary allowing 22.1 FPPG to opposing QBs over their last 5 games. For the season they’ve allowed the 5th most Passing Yards, and have the 5th fewest INT. McCoy put up a respectable 18.92 FP in his first full game in place of injured Alex Smith, and I expect him to put up similar numbers tonight.

Carson Wentz, PHI vs WAS (FD – $16,000, DK – $10,600/15,900-MVP)

While the match-up isn’t quite as enticing as facing his own secondary, Wentz is also in a nice position tonight. The Redskins are allowing 19.97 FPPG over their last 5 games. They rank 6th in the league in INT this season however, and Wentz has scored under 15 FP two weeks in a row, which is why I prefer McCoy straight up. But with the trends of both these defenses, I prefer to get both the signal callers in my lineups tonight.

 

Running Backs

Adrian Peterson, WAS @ PHI (FD – $12,500, DK – $7,400/11,100-MVP)   

Chris Thompson, WAS @ PHI (FD – $8,000, DK – $4,400/6,600-MVP)

The RB position is a tough one tonight. In Washington AP is still banged up/”questionable” and has scored single digit FP in 3 of his last 4, while Chris Thompson is returning from his 4 game absence and should be well rested. Even if AP plays against a defense allowing the 5th highest Yards per Carry, I would assume he splits snaps fairly evenly with Thompson. I am definitely intrigued by the latter due to Philly allowing the 5th most Receptions to the RB position this season. With Jordan Reed drawing extra attention due to his recent success, I see McCoy and Thompson hooking up a lot to keep the chains moving. That is why Thompson, despite the risk, is my DraftKings (PPR) MVP tonight (1.5x Points).

Josh Adams, PHI vs WAS (FD – $13,500, DK – $8,000/12,000-MVP)

Like AP, Adams is also banged up and carries a questionable tag heading into tonight, but is also expected to play. After getting 22 carries last week, I see the snap split in PHI being a lot more lopsided than WAS, and Adams will face a defense allowing 17.58 FPPG to RB1 over their last 5. Unfortunately PHI isn’t getting their backs involved in the passing game, which limits the upside here. Regardless, Adams has two double digit FP performances in a row so he’s a safe pick tonight.

 

Wide Receivers

Josh Doctson, WAS @ PHI (FD – $10,000, DK – $6,800/10,200-MVP)

Like Thompson, I am greatly interested in Josh Doctson due to McCoy’s willingness to sling the ball around, and the Eagles willingness to allow it. They have allowed the 3rd most Receptions and 2nd most Yards to WR this season, and a whopping 18.98 FPPG to WR1 over their last 5 games. In McCoy’s first start last week, Doctson drew 10 targets, catching 6 for 66 yards. It was his first game this season with over 5 Receptions. There is of course risk involved here, as Jamison Crowder could make a return tonight. I’m hoping WAS gives him one more week to recover and rolling with Doctson on both sites.

Alshon Jeffery, PHI vs WAS (FD – $10,000, DK – $8,600/12,900-MVP)                           

Golden Tate, PHI vs WAS (FD – $9,500, DK – $7,800/10,800-MVP)

The Redskins secondary also presents a nice opportunity for the Eagles WR corps to get back on track tonight as they’ve allowed the 3rd most Receiving Yards to WR, but which one gets the most looks? Alshon Jeffery has faded since the acquisition of Golden Tate, averaging just 5.3 targets per game. Tate has been a little more involved averaging 6.6 targets but has been just as ineffective failing to top 50 yards or score. Considering the recent success of WR1 against WAS (12.26 FPPG last 5), I’m going with Jeffery over Tate tonight, as I see Wentz leaning on his top guy when Zach Ertz is bottled up (see below).

 

Tight Ends

Jordan Reed, WAS @ PHI (FD – $11,500, DK – $8,200/12,300-MVP) 

What a weird spot. Essentially the two best offensive players on both teams are Tight Ends and I don’t want to play either of them tonight. The Eagles are allowing just 5.9 FPPG to TE1 over their last 5 games, and the fourth fewest FPPG this season. Jordan Reed has been hot lately, with 19 targets, 146 yards and a TD over his last two contests. But for these prices I find it hard for him to return value in a tough match-up tonight.

Zach Ertz, PHI vs WAS (FD – $14,500, DK – $11,200/16,800-MVP)

Ditto ^. The Redskins have allowed just 5.5 FPPG to TE1 over their last 5, and the 6th fewest FPPG this season. Despite getting shut down by the Saints, Ertz has scored double digits FP in 8 of his 11 games this season. He even went 10/112 against the Titans who are #1 against TE in fantasy currently. Ertz has a much better chance at overcoming the match-up tonight, but it’s a hard pass for me with those lofty prices.

 

Defenses

I’m not a fan of the floor from either side tonight. But if you were to take a flyer on rostering a DST tonight I wouldn’t argue…too much. Eagles O-Line has allowed the 11th most sacks this season and on the other side Colt McCoy committed 4 turnovers last week. The upside is there, but I’m not interested.

 

Kickers

Dustin Hopkins, WAS @ PHI (FD – $9,000, DK – $3,200/4,800)

Jake Elliott, PHI vs WAS (FD – $9,500, DK – $3,400/5,100-MVP)

WAS is allowing 7.2 FPPG to K over the last 5 games, and PHI is allowing 8.8. I can see a backup QB struggling to score in the redzone, especially when his go-to TE is struggling to get open – so Hopkins interests me slightly. Both Kickers are an easy pass on FanDuel, but the salary relief on DraftKings could make it possible to roster the stud TEs if you are a believer tonight. Obviously I am not, therefore I did not need the salary relief.

 

Lineup Examples

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Picks Against the Spread

(Eagles (-6.0) vs Redskins: O/U 45.5)

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Redskins 20

Bets: Eagles (-6.0), Over 45.5

 

*Photo by Keith Allison

Week 13 NFL Picks ATS

The Rowdy Sports Guys at The Combine team up with Kev, Ben Rolfe, and Kingy to bring you their Week 13 NFL picks ATS

Welcome to Week 13 of the NFL season, fellow degenerates. We knocked out some NCAAF picks against the spread yesterday, so we called on a few more buddies today to help us with Sunday’s madness. Today we have some more RotoBallers – Ben Rolfe, RotoSurgeon-Kev, Kingy along with Combiners RowdyRotoJB, Ronnie Boo-Boo Child, El Presidente, Nice Guy Joe, and Spence. Here is the final product:

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The Majority Picks

  1. Dolphins vs Bills – Over 40.0
  2. Bears (-3.5)
  3. Giants vs Bears – Under 44.5
  4. Packers (-14.0)
  5. Cardinals vs Packers – Over 43.5
  6. Broncos (-5.5)
  7. Bengals vs Broncos – Under 45.0
  8. Falcons (-1.5)
  9. Falcons vs Ravens – Over 48.5
  10. Colts (-5.0)
  11. Rams (-10.0)
  12. Lions vs Rams – Over 55
  13. Panthers (-3.5)
  14. Buccaneers vs Panthers – Over 54
  15. Texans vs Browns – Over 47.5
  16. Chiefs (-14.5)
  17. Raiders vs Chiefs – Under 55.0
  18. Titans vs Jets – Under 40.5
  19. Seahawks (-10.0)
  20. Vikings (+5.5)
  21. Steelers (-3.5)
  22. Steelers vs Chargers – Over 52.0
  23. Eagles (-6.0)
  24. Eagles vs Redskins – Under 45.0

The Top Rowdy Pick of Week 13

  1. Jaguars vs Colts – Under 47.0

 

Agree or disagree with our picks? Which guy do you see finishing with the highest percentage this week? Leave a comment or hit us up on Twitter!

Week 13 NFL DFS Picks

JB gives his top NFL DFS picks for Week 13

Quarterback

Jameis Winston, TB vs CAR (FD – $7,500, DK – $6,000)

Underdogs at home, in the second highest O/U on the slate, against Divisional rivals. I love the spot for Winston this week. Carolina has allowed the fourth most Pass TD this season, along with 20.0 FPPG to opposing QBs. Coming off a 312 Yards, 2 TD performance in a comfortable win over San Fran, Winston is going to have to throw a ton to beat the Panthers. Week 13 POTW ceiling… replaced by FitzMagic at halftime floor.

Jared Goff, LAR @ DET (FD – $8,400, DK – $6,400)

Goff is my safest pick at QB this week, simply because I see the Lions hanging around longer than the Raiders will with Mahomes – plus the Lions Rush D since the trade for Snacks Harrison has been very solid. The Detroit secondary on the other hand is quite disturbing as a Lions fan. They are allowing the fifth highest Comp%, second highest QBR, and have the third fewest INTs this season. Goff has scored over 20 FP in four straight contests, two going for over 30. The Rams are 10 point favorites in the highest O/U on the slate, and won’t have to worry about the weather.

 

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey, CAR @ TB (FD – $8,800, DK – $8,800)

CMC is coming off a massive 41 FP performance against SEA in a back and forth nail-biter that should resemble this weeks showdown with the Bucs. The Bucs have allowed the fourth most Rush TD this season, and 23.3 FPPG to opposing RBs. Four weeks ago McCaffrey rushed for 79 yards and 2 scores against TB, adding 5 Rec for an additional 78 yards. As the heart of the offense for any down or situation at this point, CMC is my lock-in stud for all my lineups this week.

Phillip Lindsay, DEN @ CIN (FD – $7,000, DK – $5,400)

I’m going Lindsay here with my #2 simply because of the value. You almost can’t fade him at this price facing the Bengals. I honestly think Aaron Jones has the better upside against the Cardinals in the Wisconsin weather, but the $1,300 difference on DK is too much. Cincy has allowed the second most Rush yards, and third most Rush TD this season. Andy Dalton is out, and Jeff Driskel will be heavily pressured all game. The Broncos should be riding Lindsay into the ground by the start of the second half. He’s scored over 15 FP in four of his last five contests, and there’s no reason to doubt that he’ll make it 5/6 today.

Honorable Mention: Spencer Ware, KC @ Raiders (FD – $5,200, DK – $4,000), Aaron Jones, GB vs ARI (FD – $7,600, DK – $6,700)

 

Wide Receiver

Kenny Golladay, DET vs LAR (FD – $7,300, DK – $6,700)

As previously stated, this game has the highest predicted score on the slate, and the Lions per usual are underdogs. This should lead to plenty of catch-up work for Matthew Stafford and his one-man WR corps. The Rams are tied for the second most Pass TD allowed this season, along with the third highest Yards per Catch. This bodes well for the ball-hawk out of Northern Illinois. He has posted three straight double digit fantasy scores, averaging 12 targets per game over that span. Marcus Peters is not going to enjoy the film sessions after this game.

Robert Woods, LAR @ DET (FD – $7,300, DK – $6,900)

My favorite DFS strategy is auto-selecting WR2-3 from offenses playing against Detroit. Teez Tabor and Nevin Lawson have been atrocious in coverage this year, and that’s not going to stop against a stud that has scored double digit FP in 9 of 11 games this season and is coming off an 11 target game. The Lions are allowing 25.9 FPPG to WRs, and if Slay shadows Cooks as he usually does with WR1s, Woods is going to be a busy man.

Honorable Mentions: Adam Humphries, TB vs CAR (FD – $6,000, DK – $4,200)

 

Tight End

David Njoku, CLE @ HOU (FD – $5,500, DK – $4,300)

It feels like Week 13 has more enticing TE options than any other week this season. Despite going with one of the guys in the CAR-TB game, I’m going with the guy I think has the highest ceiling of the group. Houston allowed three straight opposing TEs to score. Jonnu Smith went for 2/63/1, Jordan Reed 7/71/1, and Jeff freaking Heuerman 10/83/1. Combine this with the fact that Houston has been very good against opposing WR over their last five games, means Baker is going to need Njoku to keep up with Watson today.

Cameron Brate, TB vs CAR (FD – $4,900, DK – $3,700)

I don’t think I need to justify TEs facing Carolina anymore. Cameron Brate literally has better odds at scoring a TD than the coin flip landing on heads.

Honorable Mentions: Greg Olsen, CAR @ TB (FD – $6,000, DK – $4,100)

 

Defense

Chicago Bears @ NYG (FD – $4,800, DK – $3,300)

I am more intrigued by using one of the match-up based values at DST this week like the Packers below, Broncos versus Driskel, or the Chiefs versus Gruden’s Raiders. But I continually found myself with the money to spend, and the lack of guts to not start the Bears. They have easily scored the most FPPG of any DST this season, only scoring single digits in one game. They lead the league in INT, and are seventh in sacks. They square off with Eli Manning in what forecasts to be a damp game at MetLife. It’s fool-proof.

Green Bay Packers vs ARI (FD – $4,400, DK – $2,800)

If you don’t happen to have the available dough to play the Bears, or have more strength than me to fade the best DST in the league, the Packers are your best bet. The forecast calls for 21 mph winds at Lambeau with a nice, welcoming snow/rain mix. That should be fun for a rookie QB who plays his home games in a comfy dome in Arizona and graduated from UCLA. The Pack have the fourth most sacks in the league and Rosen (11 INT) will be forced to drop back a whole lot as a 14 point underdog.

 

Sample Lineups

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*Photo by Keith Allison